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Public Analysis: Above Normal Temperatures and Thunderstorm Threats Return for the Holiday Weekend

Good Evening! 

Today was yet another beautiful day across the Northeast due to a weak area of high pressure to our south bringing in low humidity, mild temperatures, and light southerly winds for the entire region. Highs today were generally limited to the low to upper 70’s across our area due to cooler temperatures aloft associated with a deep area of mid level toughing located just to our north. As we get deeper into the evening hours across the area, high altitude cirrus clouds should begin to move in from the west, signaling the beginning of another pattern change. With clear skies, low dewpoints, and light winds from the west, conditions will be near-perfect for radiational cooling to take place, so expect low tonight to fall into the middle 50’s to low 60’s across the area, with some locations well-removed from the coast possibly sinking into the low 50’s during the early morning hours.

This afternoon/evenings latest high-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and regional radar mosaic, showing relatively calm and mild conditions for your Wednesday evening.

Thursday is looking more like a rather large step in the direction of above-average temperatures for the entire region as mid level ridging to our south and east begins to build northward over our area, especially during the afternoon hours. The same high pressure that provided the area with extremely comfortable weather over the past few days will begin to turn on us by directing winds from the south and southeast. This will lead to much higher dewpoints overtaking the tri-state area, which will lead to a muggier feel for tomorrow. In addition to the increasing humidity, rising heights will also allow mid level temperatures to rise significantly. The combination of warm mid level temperatures, a muggier airmass, and southerly winds will lead to high temperatures likely reaching all the way into the middle to upper 80’s tomorrow with some potions of Notheastern New Jersey and southern New York state likely seeing temps pass that 90-degree mark.

In lieu of all this warmer weather, a pretty tight pressure gradient will set up shop over the area as the aforementioned high pressure system begins to move off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes Region continues to gradually move north and east. This will likely increase winds to around 15-25 miles per hour, with gusts likely reaching into the 30-40 mph range during the day. Some isolated wind gusts will be capable of taking small twigs off of trees and blowing around lawn furniture. Additionally, this strong southerly flow may be able to limit just how warm south-facing shores of Long Island and Connecticut can get tomorrow if the winds kick in during the early afternoon hours as opposed to later in the day.

Later tomorrow evening, increasing mid level moisture as well as the enhanced southerly flow should create some increased cloudiness, with any chance at some showers limited to the far northern regions due to a total lack of forcing for any kind of thunderstorm development. Tomorrow evening will be quite warmer than Wednesday evening as temperatures are only likely into the middle to upper 60’s, with some 70 degree low temperatures possible in the more insulated locations.

This evenings North American Model showing relatively high wind gusts tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours due to an increasing pressure gradient overhead. Please refer to the NWS for any potential Wind Advisory's tomorrow

This evenings North American Model showing relatively high wind gusts tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours due to an increasing pressure gradient overhead. Please refer to the NWS for any potential Wind Advisory’s tomorrow

Friday looks to be yet another warm and borderline hot day as mid level ridging continues to build over the area. With the high pressure firmly off of the Mid Atlantic coast by this time, winds from the south should continue to usher in very warm and moist air in the lower levels of the atmosphere that will push a frontal system well to our north. With this frontal system located to our north, any potential pieces of energy that will be capable of triggering any shower and thunderstorms will also remain north of our area during the day. Regardless, Friday will likely be another increasingly muggy and warm day with mostly sunny skies leading to highs in the upper 80’s, and possibly even 90 once again for portions of New Jersey and southern New York. Friday evening looks to be a warm, but bearable one as humidity decreases ever so slightly, but temperatures will likely remain in the low to middle 70’s for lows.

As of now, it appears that the more unstable day appears to be on Saturday as a frontal system associated with some energy from an approaching mid level trough over the Great Lakes region heads eastward. Saturday will also likely feature rich tropical moisture, increasing instability, and some improved wind fields that will be necessary for thunderstorm development towards the afternoon hours. While the thunderstorm threat will definitely need to be revisited on Friday, there does seem to be support from the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF for this scenario. Anyway, Saturday will likely feature mostly sunny condition’s, with increasing clouds towards the afternoon hours once again. Highs will likely be able to eclipse Fridays highs, with 80’s and lower 90’s looking possible.

Sunday also looks to be rather unsettled with increasing cloudiness and an enhanced threat of showers and thunderstorms as yet another lobe of energy rounds the base of the trough located in southern Canada. This lobe of energy will send off some energy through the Ohio Valley, which will act as a trigger and potential development zone for precipitation during most of the day. Due to the enhanced clouds, Sunday will likely be only slightly cooler than the previous two days, with highs likely reaching into the mid 80’s.

This afternoons European model showing yet another possible Canadian disturbance dropping southward and potentially increasing the threat for showers and thunderstorms for the later half of the holiday weekend (Courtesy of AccuweatherPro)

This afternoons European model showing yet another possible Canadian disturbance dropping southward and potentially increasing the threat for showers and thunderstorms for the later half of the holiday weekend (Courtesy of AccuweatherPro)

Drier conditions appear possible for Monday as a subtle mid level ridge builds in behind the weekend system, but this afternoons model guidance has been hinting at the potential for another system to work its way in and potentially provide another chance for some showers and thunderstorms on the 4th of July. We will have a full update on the Holiday Weekend and beyond on Friday afternoon!

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

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Public Analysis: Calm and Cool Conditions Gives Way to Hot and Stormy By Friday

Good Evening! 

We had a rather wild Saturday morning this past weekend as the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy stormed through the area along with a rather strong cold front. All of the deep tropical moisture and forcing from Cindy and the cold front allowed a rather impressive line of torrential rain and embedded thunderstorms to move through the area early on Saturday morning. This area of heavy rain did bring some flooding to locations as rainfall rates increased to over one inch per hour, but also brought some extensive wind damage, along with two confirmed tornadoes in Monmouth county, New Jersey! After the cold front moved through, we saw a much direr air mass take over yesterday, which has persisted through the day today, and should last another 48 hours. Afterwards, it appears that a large area of high pressure will form just off the East Coast and looks to bring above normal temperatures back to the region, with the addition of another muggy air-mass and the threat of some strong thunderstorms towards the end of the week.

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This Evening Into Tomorrow

As mentioned, today was a very pleasant day with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and cooler temperatures thanks to a rather moderate and dry air mass in place over the region. High temperatures were able to stick into the mid to upper 70’s, which is slightly-below, or just around seasonable for this time of year. Some locations saw temperatures drop off a bit during the afternoon hours as sea-breezes made their way inland over portions of Long Island and Connecticut. There was some threat of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the lack of a strong trigger and very dry mid levels of the atmosphere seem to point that nothing more than a few cumulus clouds should be expected for the remainder of the day and into the evening.

As we continue into the evening hours, a very unusually strong mid level trough for this time of year will continue to pivot eastward, and drags another cold front with it. While this afternoons models were hinting at some rain later this evening associated with this cold front, it seems that the aforementioned dry air should put a kibosh on any precipitation. As the front approached the area, falling heights out ahead of the upper level trough should allow for clouds to increase, but with light winds and a very cool vertical temperature profile in place, overnight lows should drop to below-normal levels, with low to mid 60’s likely for most of the area, and 50’s possible for areas further away from the coast.

This evenings latest regional radar mosaic, HRES visible satellite imagery, and surface observations showing relatively calm conditions, with some showers and thunderstorms to the north and west (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

This evenings latest regional radar mosaic, HRES visible satellite imagery, and surface observations showing relatively calm conditions, with some showers and thunderstorms to the north and west (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Tuesday morning should feature mostly sunny skies to start the day as a cold front begins to move through the region. By the late morning to early afternoon hours, the anomalously strong trough centered to our north and west will continue to move east and be overtop the area, with very cool mid level temperatures. These cold mid level temperatures will become important tomorrow afternoon as the surface temperatures begin to rapidly warm up, causing a very healthy amount of rising motion in the atmosphere. Combined with very marginal instability, we could see one or two showers or even an isolated thunderstorm pop tomorrow afternoon, but due to continued dry mid levels of the atmosphere and the overall lack of a trigger, the most likely outcome is that clouds should begin to increase, with cumulus clouds becoming quite numerous by the late afternoon. With the cooler mid level temperatures in place and light southerly/southwesterly winds expected to be in place, high temperatures should be able to reach into the mid to upper 70’s, with some areas possibly even hitting the 80 degree mark with prolonged sun.

Otherwise, skies should begin to clear and winds should become calm as an area of high pressure begins to build in behind the cold front to our west. This high pressure system will usher in another cool and dry airmass for the region, which should allow quite favorable conditions for radiational cooling to take place during the evening hours tomorrow. This should allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60’s and even the 50’s once again!

This afternoons high resolution North American model showing a very pleasant day on Tuesday afternoon just before a cold front works its way on in from the west, bringing yet another mild and dry airmass (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

This afternoons high resolution North American model showing a very pleasant day on Tuesday afternoon just before a cold front works its way on in from the west, bringing yet another mild and dry airmass (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

Wednesday and Beyond

Wednesday will likely start off rather calm as an area of mid level ridging begins to build and move eastward during the day, with high pressure mainly in control. This should allow for mostly sunny skies and light winds from the south/southwest to take over during the day, which will likely bring temperatures in the upper 70’s to the lower 80’s for some of the more southern locations. All in all, Wednesday should be a rather beautiful day, with slightly below-normal highs and building clouds later in the day and approaching the evenings hours as a warm front begins to advance east.

By Thursday, the riding should become stationary over area and make little if any forward progress during the day, so expect winds to become a bit steadier from the southwest. Temperatures aloft will also begin to warm quite a bit, so temperatures will likely be able to climb into the low to middle 80’s during the day Thursday with mostly sunny conditions expected.

As we get towards the end of the week on Friday, its looking likely that precipitation chances will be on the increase as the area of high pressure along the east coast shifts eastward and allows rich tropical moisture to bleed northward once again. Temperatures will also be on the increase, with highs likely getting into the middle to upper 80’s, with some locations likely hitting that 90-degree mark as well. Friday appears to have more organized instability, better shear, and a more coherent trigger than any day this week, so we do feel that there is an increased risk of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms during the day on Friday, but we will have to revisit this later in the week. Otherwise, this pattern looks to continue through the weekend before another high pressure system moves through and brings a more mild airmass in time for the beginning of next week.

This afternoons European Ensembles showing an increased potential for above normal temperatures by the end of this week and into this weekend (Courtesy of TropicalTidbits)

This afternoons European Ensembles showing an increased potential for above normal temperatures by the end of this week and into this weekend (Courtesy of TropicalTidbits)

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

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Public Analysis: Remnants of Cindy Likely to Bring Heavy Rain, Seasonable Conditions Return Next Week

Good Afternoon and Happy Friday! 

Getting right into things, earlier this week we highlighted the potential for some heavy rain associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy, which made landfall along the Texas coastline early Thursday morning. At that time, we stated that there were two scenarios that were likely to play out, one being that the remnants of Cindy would not hold up all that well after landfall, and the other being that they would. Over the past twelve to eighteen hours or so, it has become apparent that the remnants of Cindy have remained quite robust as they traveled over the Ozarks and into the Tennessee Valley, at least in the mid levels of the atmosphere. With very deep, tropical moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico, the significance of having a more coherent remnant system means that the leftover energy will spark widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening and into Saturday. In addition to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy, which has been downgraded to a remnant low pressure area, we also have a cold front surging through the Ohio Valley.

This cold front has been working to funnel all of the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to the north and east, allowing it to pool up over the eastern third of the nation over the past two days. This has made for a very soupy and humid day today across the majority of the Northeast. We saw some very subtle lift manifest itself over Pennsylvania around noon today, which allowed for some showers to move eastward through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. Occasional breaks in the clouds and very warm temperatures a few thousand feet off the ground allowed temperatures to spike back into the low to middle 80’s across the entire region, despite sudden temperature drops with any gusty showers that passed through some locations.

As of 630pm, a convective complex was evolving over the eastern half of Pennsylvania, and this complex will continue to head eastward through the evening. With adequate amounts of wind shear, instability, and an extremely moist air mass in place, torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and some gusty winds seem quite likely for those in the path of these showers and storms. Synoptic winds (winds not associated with small scale features) have already been quite impressive this afternoon, so we are quite confident that the probability for tropical-like downpours and gusty winds could cause some localized flooding with debris from trees likely clogging sewers. In lieu of this slight risk for severe thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has issued a severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10pm this evening. The rest of the evening should remain quite unsettled, with the potential for more showers and thunderstorms behind this complex, so make sure to pay attention to your local NWS office for any potential warnings!

Animated regional radar mosaic, showing the evolution of a complex of showers and thunderstorms approaching the area. The main threats appear to be heavy downpours and gusty winds (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Animated regional radar mosaic, showing the evolution of a complex of showers and thunderstorms approaching the area. The main threats appear to be heavy downpours and gusty winds (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Saturday Morning to Evening

As we head into tomorrow morning, things look to remain quite unstable as the energy from the remnants of Cindy approaches the area while the cold front to our east compresses all of the rich tropical moisture into a focal point, located right over our area. During the day today, the high resolution models have been keying in on a very heavy band of rain moving over portions of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut by 7-10 am tomorrow. This band of heavy rain is directly associated with a mid level piece of energy currently located over portions of Kentucky, which will likely continue NE throughout the evening hours. A crucial point here is that since the energy already exists and is well sampled, the models likely have a decent grasp on the situation over the next 12-18 hours. Regardless, as this piece of energy nears our area tomorrow morning, we will have to monitor the situation very closely since any rainfall with this system will likely be quite intense, which could produce localized flash-flooding, and exacerbate and potential flooding issues caused by tonight’s storms.

Thankfully, the rain threat looks to quickly diminish later tomorrow morning, into the early afternoon hours. Any residual showers and thunderstorms look to press off to the east and offshore, leaving much drier conditions in their wake. With clearing skies, westerly winds, and warm low to mid level temperatures, temperatures should be able to climb into the middle 80’s with ease by late tomorrow afternoon, making for a nice rebound. Weak high pressure will be over the region Saturday night. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expect with lows in the 60s in many of the suburbs to lower 70s in NYC and urban areas.

Rapid Precision Models deception of this evening and tomorrow mornings heavy rain threats (Courtesy of WSI)

Rapid Precision Models deception of the possible heavy rain threats this evening, lasting into tomorrow morning (Courtesy of WSI)

Sunday and Beyond 

Sunday looks to be quite beautiful early on, with increasing sunshine during the early morning and afternoon hours and light winds from the west/southwest due to high pressure exiting off the Mid Atlantic coast. With the mid/upper level trough moving over the region during the day, slightly cooler temperatures aloft will limit just how warm temperatures can get, with highs likely reaching into the lower to middle 80s over much of the area. There is some potential for sea-breeze activity to knock temperatures down into the 70’s during the afternoon hours, but this will likely happen on a very small scale. Later in the day, a weak cold front looks to move through the area, and bring at least an increase in cloudiness, with an outside chance at a shower or weak thunderstorm towards the evening hours.

By Monday, troughiness will increase once again over the northern section of the Great Lakes region, which will likely usher in a cooler and much direr air mass compared to what we have been experiencing over the past few days. This area of below normal temperatures looks to continue into at least Tuesday, before we have to watch for the potential of a ridge building over the east, possibly by Wednesday. Mid level ridging may continue to build into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through end of the week, with more heat and humidity possible over the east.  As of right now, no significant precipitation or convection is expected, until the trough over Rockies finally shifts east into Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region by next weekend.

This afternoons European Ensembles showing a rather high likelihood of below normal temperatures for the first half of next week.

This afternoons European Ensembles showing a rather high likelihood of below normal temperatures for the first half of next week.

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

 

Loop of the strong northern stream system and Tropical Storm Cindy interacting with one another, to potentially bring some heavy showers and thunderstorms for the area

Public Analysis: Unsettled Conditions Continue, Keeping An Eye on Tropical Storm Cindy

Good Evening! 

As discussed back on Monday, some residual moisture and weak instability worked its way into the area during the morning and afternoon hours, and when coupled with some forcing just to our northeast, we saw scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across much of the region. These showers and thunderstorms had some decent dynamics to work with, with wind shear being high, lapse rates being quite steep, and the upper level jet streak being located in a favorable position for divergence aloft. Since these conditions came together just at the right time, we actually saw some strong to locally severe thunderstorms develop over New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and portions of Connecticut. A segment developed in Pennsylvania and went on to track east, leaving numerous wind damage reports in its wake. Further north, isolated cells developed over southern New York and went on to track into Connecticut, which brought a few small hail reports and isolated wind damage reports.

As of right now, these storms have begun to weaken and are moving off the coast as the best dynamics and instability begin to fade away. Despite the storms and occasional cloudiness, temperatures were able to rise into the low to middle 80’s across much of the area. The cold front which acted as the lifting mechanism for today’s storms will begin to move through the region and bring a drier airmass in its wake later this evening. Clouds should begin to diminish by sunset, which should allow temperatures to fall back down into the 60’s tonight, with lows in the 50’s possible farther north and east of the city.

This evenings latest high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface station plots, showing the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity pushing to the east.

This evenings latest high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface station plots, showing the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity pushing to the east.

Thursday into Friday 

Thursday should start off as a rather beautiful day with low humidity, clear skies, and light winds from the west. Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will allow the area to stay mostly-sunny during the day tomorrow, with just some upper level cirrus clouds likely approaching the area. Temperatures aloft will be rather mild thanks to the ridging overhead, so expect to see highs in the low to middle 80’s once again tomorrow, except this time it will feel more pleasant due to the lower dew points. Later in the evening tomorrow, low level moisture advection will begin to overspread the area due to a weak warm front aloft. This moisture will be quite rich in nature, as the majority of it is being fed from the deep south and portions of the Gulf of Mexico thanks to Tropical Storm Cindy. Some elevated showers and thunderstorms may try to develop late tomorrow evening as the moisture feed begins to overspread the region, but at the very least it seems likely that clouds will increase in earnest tomorrow night. The increased cloudy skies and rich moisture feed will lead to low temperatures not really being able to fall all that much, with temperatures in the low 70’s likely across most of the area.

This afternoons Rapid Precision model, showing the potential for heavy rains associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy to affect the region on Friday and into Saturday (Credit: WSI)

This afternoons Rapid Precision model, showing the potential for heavy rains associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy to affect the region on Friday and into Saturday (Credit: WSI)

The forecast on Friday becomes quite complex as a strong northern stream disturbance begins to interact with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy, which will likely be situated over the Ozarks by Friday morning. The aforementioned warm front that we talked about for Thursday evening should be through the area by Friday afternoon, leaving most of the area with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures once again.

Highs will likely be able to climb into the middle 80’s with ease, but the increasing moisture from the south will also raise the dewpoints over the area, possibly making for a very muggy afternoon. With sunshine likely during the afternoon hours and an abundance of moisture also in place, instability will build over the area, and will be accompanied by some modest wind shear over the area. The pieces will be in place for heavy showers and thunderstorms to go up over the area during the afternoon hours, but the item in question will be whether or not we have a direct trigger to set off any storms. At this time, it appears likely that an adequate amount of mid level energy will be in place to set off the development of some isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and very heavy rainfall rates, possibly causing some localized flooding.

As we head into the late afternoon and evening, the threat for more showers and thunderstorms will increase markedly as the direct remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Cindy begin to crash into a cold front located to our west. Again, the main question that will be determining whether or not we see widespread heavy rainfall comes down the need for a “trigger” mechanism. One possible outcome is that Cindy deteriorates after making landfall to the point that the systems energy is dissipated, and all that is left is just some moisture. This outcome would lead to showers and thunderstorms being more scattered during the later portion of Friday, but still have the potential for heavy, tropical downpours.

The second option would be that Cindy does maintain itself as a coherent and trackable system in at least the mid levels of the atmosphere. This would allow the residual lift from the decaying tropical storm to spark numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours of Friday, and would carry a much greater threat of torrential downpours and localized flooding concerns. At this time, it is looking likely that what will happen will be a healthy blend of both scenarios, with Cindy retaining some mid level energy that will set off heavy showers and storms just to the west of the NYC area, which will have the potential to track eastward and put down some impressive rainfall totals in a short period of time. This solution is baked up by this afternoons European model and the American model. Since Cindy has not yet made landfall, this solution may still change, so be sure to stay up to date and check back again over the coming days! Also, please keep an eye on the latest NWS products in the event that Flood Watches are issued down the line.

Image showing very impressive amounts of water vapor being advected north over our area, which will greatly increase the threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Image showing very impressive amounts of water vapor being advected north over our area, which will greatly increase the threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday and Beyond

Heavy showers and storms may continue into the early morning hours of Saturday and possibly even the afternoon as the cold front pushes through the area, dragging the rest of the deep tropical moisture with it. There are still some model difference on fast the cold front with tropical moisture moves offshore Saturday afternoon. If the front is slower, a more showers and thunderstorms could linger into Saturday afternoon. But latest model trends have been faster, so we are still leaning to more clearing skies by Saturday afternoon. More sunshine will help temperatures rise into middle 80s on Saturday afternoon.

The cold front and its associated moisture should then begin to shift well offshore, leaving an area of weak high pressure in its wake. Sunday should be quite pleasant, with clearing skies and highs in the lower 80’s, also accompanied by a much more comfortable airmass.

An active northern stream will keep conditions relatively unsettled for the foreseeable future, with a chance at a cool-down later in the week as well.

This afternoons European ensemble mean showing a shot at some cooler weather into the middle portion of next week (Courtesy of WeatherBell)

This afternoons European ensemble mean showing a shot at some cooler weather into the middle portion of next week (Courtesy of WeatherBell)

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Premium Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino