John Homenuk

Significant storm will bring rain, wind through Thursday

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If you are a fan of changeable weather, today is for you. A major storm system, developing as a result of a mid level phase, will organize over the Tennessee Valley and shift northeastward to a position near New York City late tonight. The track will mean significant winter weather for our friends in Northern New England (including many of the major ski resorts), but more notably one of the more dramatic swings in sensible weather our area has seen in months. Temperatures will swing from the mid 60s to 70s in some spots this afternoon, all the way down into the 20s by Thursday morning.

Not surprisingly, the significant storm system moving through the Northeast US Wednesday into Thursday will feature a powerful thermal gradient and cold front. Initially, the thermal gradient will develop along a warm front which will stretch from southwest to northeast through the Northeast Wednesday afternoon. Parts of New Jersey could eclipse 70 degrees as southerly winds increase and temperatures increase in the low levels. Forecast models show drizzle and rain eventually increasing in coverage and intensity by Wednesday evening as moisture and lift begin to increase and the frontal boundary approaches Central Pennsylvania.

Regional radar imagery showing precipitation approaching the area (weather tap).

Regional radar imagery showing precipitation approaching the area as of 9:15am (weather tap).

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John Homenuk

Warmup, rain ahead of impressive cold front

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Fair weather and warming temperatures will be the story on Tuesday, as westerly winds continue and temperatures warm up aloft. Highs on Monday, which reached into the 50’s, will be bested by the early afternoon hours through much of the area. The warmest temperature readings are likely to come from Southern and Central NJ, where short term forecast models show some potential for temperatures to reach into the upper 60’s by afternoon with abundant sunshine. Despite being a few degrees cooler, areas farther north will also be feeling the warmth especially compared to what the past several weeks have had to offer.

The warmth will feel a bit more muggy by Wednesday, as a storm system approaches the area from the Tennessee Valley and eventually tracks fairly close to the area by later Wednesday. Drizzle and increasing clouds will put a damper on what otherwise will be another warmer than normal day, especially south of a warm front which is forecast to position itself from west to east in Central New Jersey. Rain will become more steady later in the day on Wednesday and may actually become heavy for a period of time late Wednesday night.

HRRR model forecasting high temperatures in the mid 60's in parts of the area Tuesday afternoon.

HRRR model forecasting high temperatures in the mid 60’s in parts of the area Tuesday afternoon.

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John Homenuk

Midweek storm trending more wet than white

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It has been a while since we have been able to confidently back off on winter weather potential; in a season which has featured an absolutely tremendous amount of snowfall events and a staggering amount of over-performers. With the upcoming midweek storm, the winter weather potential was fairly clear from the get go. A southern stream disturbance meandering near the Mississippi River, some cold air in place to start, and an energetic northern stream disturbance racing southeastward from Canada to the Great Lakes. The summation of all of these parts usually results in a winter weather event somewhere in the Northeast US, and this situation likely will end no differently. But a delicate evolution of events is likely to produce a warmer situation in our local area.

The evolution of the system begins well to our west, over the Rockies and International Border in the Northern US. As mentioned earlier, a southern stream disturbance will eject from Mexico into the Southern United States (likely providing a fairly significant amount of moisture) while a disturbance from the northern stream slides southeastward to phase with it. At the time of the interaction, a lack of high latitude blocking (over the Northwest Atlantic and Greenland) will allow for height rises over the East Coast, and warmer air intrusion ahead of the developing system. This will be less of a concern over New England, but all models agree that the warm air will likely warm both the mid levels and the surface and help to keep the thermal gradient to our north — meaning more rain than snow in much of the area.

GFS model showing a low pressure system tracking very close to the area on Wednesday afternoon.

GFS model showing a low pressure system tracking very close to the area on Wednesday afternoon.

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Francesco Paparatto

Watching Possible Snowstorm For March 12th-13th

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There is growing confidence that a possible snowstorm will affect the Northeast U.S. during the middle of next week, as the ingredients needed for one to occur are beginning to consistently show up on the models. It seems this winter has been relentless with the constant cold and frequent snowfalls. This type of pattern just does not want to let go — not yet, at least.