2014 – Page 46 – New York Metro Weather

Wednesday’s light snow gives way to near record cold

February 26, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Light snow is falling throughout the area this morning and will continue to do so for the next several hours. The culprit is a weak mid level disturbance and associated elongated surface low, which in actuality is quite progressive and weak. But sufficient lift for precipitation and the presence of markedly colder air will set the table for a very light snow event through Wednesday evening. Accumulations will be quite light, thanks to the transient and light nature of precipitation and still relatively warm ground temperatures, ranging from a trace to 1″ in some isolated areas. The snow is expected to wind down by later Wednesday afternoon.

More notable than the light snow accumulations will be the impending shots of cold air, which will move from Canada and the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Thursday and Friday. A piece of the displaced Polar Vortex will shift southeastward toward Southeast Canada, and the resulting arctic front will drag anomalously cold air into the area behind Wednesday’s weak storm system and another clipper on Thursday. Temperatures aloft, at the 850mb level to be specific, will fall below -20 C in much of the area. Compare that to the +15 c temperatures at 850mb which reached the area last Friday, and you have yourself an idea as to how cold the airmass really is.

High resolution NAM model forecasting low temperatures in the single digits to near zero in the area on Friday morning.

Ending the developing misconceptions regarding the Polar Vortex

February 25, 2014/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

It has been a media frenzy. Since January, when a piece of the Polar Vortex made its dramatic trip through the Central and Eastern United States, the misconceptions regarding its origins and actual definition have continued. Whether made in a joking manner or not, some of the ideas regarding the Polar Vortex’s actual characteristics have created a bit of an issue for meteorologists. When using it to describe the pattern, we now have to keep in mind the potential media impacts. To be frank: That is not the way it should be.

The Polar Vortex, in our hemisphere, is a persistent cyclone which is located near the North Pole. It features a counter-clockwise rotating pool of cold, dense air — some of the coldest on the globe, in fact. The vortex moves around to a certain extent, but generally remains in the vicinity of the poles. What separates and moves southward (sometimes towards our area) in anomalous patterns, are pieces of the Polar Vortex which feature characteristics of the vortex itself and similar air masses.

A significant piece of the Polar Vortex is forecast to drop into Southeast Canada later this week. Here, the GFS model forecasts its position at 500mb at 84 hours.

Two fireballs seen in the Northeast since Sunday

February 25, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The skies have been active in the NYC/NJ areas over the past several days. Multiple reports of a bright fireball were received on Sunday evening, from Vermont to New York. Observers reported the fireball “streaking through the sky, brightening and then dimming in only 10 seconds”. An additional fireball was reportedly seen on Monday night in much of the Northeast US including New York and New Jersey. Jersey Shore Hurricane News reader JP Dunne reported “I’m located in Oceanport, and it occurred directly south. Someone else had to see it.”\

Not surprisingly, the American Meteor Society has received hundreds of reports from both events — so we can almost certainly say that the events were not isolated or a hoax. The AMS uses a public submission form so that observers of meteors can submit their reports time, location, brightness and other information. You can view the reports from each event (and others throughout the United States over the past several days, weeks and months) at the AMS report page right here.

Most interestingly of all, the Sunday meteor had a little bit of luck involved. Ethan Rogati was taking long-exposure photographs of the sky in Vermont when the meteor flew directly through his field of view. The incredible photograph he captured is below. Although there have been a few meteors spotted in the Northeast US over the past few days, there is no meteor storm or shower currently occurring. Astronomers don’t anticipate a continued uptick in meteor activity.

Sunday’s meteor as captured by Ethan Rogati in Sand Bar State Park VT.

Cold, with nuiscance-type snow events this week

February 25, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

So far this winter, nearly every potential winter weather event has turned into something much larger than originally anticipated. This has created headaches and long work nights for meteorologists and forecasters alike. This week, we look to buck the trend a bit. A parade of disturbances through the mid levels of the atmosphere look likely to bring opportunity for light snowfall, but the progressive nature of the pattern will ultimately keep these events fast, with no significant or heavy precipitation and generally weak low pressure centers.

The result will be multiple periods of light snow, first on Tuesday afternoon and evening especially across Southeast New Jersey. Additional periods of light snow are expected both Wednesday afternoon (area-wide) and Thursday (mostly across northern zones). But when all is said and done, the general theme will be light accumulations only (generally a trace to 1″), as the intensity and duration of the snow will be far too light to cause any significant issues. Still, roads could become slick for a period of time so as always we advise traveling with caution. There are no signals for banding or areas of heavy precipitation that could surprise us.

NAM model forecasting light snow/snow showers to impact the area on Wednesday (similar impacts expected Tuesday).

Archive for year: 2014