John Homenuk

Antares rocket launch fails, explodes on launch

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A NASA rocket scheduled to launch at 6:22pm tonight from Wallops Island in Virginia exploded 14 seconds after launch. The rocket erupted into flames and crashed to the ground causing widespread flames and smoke which was detected on radar.

The rocket was unmanned. The cause of the explosion has not yet been determined. The rocket launch was originally scheduled for yesterday, but a sailboat in the waters near the launch site caused the launch to be scrubbed until today.

The cause of the explosion has not yet been determined. We will continue to update this post with information as we get it.

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Doug Simonian

Despite cold weekend, November looks to start off warm

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As many of you have probably heard by now, a major shot of cold air is on the way for this weekend, with the potential for a storm system to bring the first snowflakes of the season for some areas. For more information on that threat, check out our article we published earlier this afternoon. This article will focus on what’s to come after that blast of cold air.

October is just about complete, and it was a very warm month both nationally and regionally.

It has been much warmer than average for most of the country this month (ACIS).

It has been much warmer than average for most of the country this month (ACIS).

In predicting the future weather patterns, we often like to take a look at what has happened in the recent past, and roll forward with any expected changes to the pattern, or lack-there-of. Here is the 500mb pattern that has occurred in the Northern Hemisphere this month:

The 500mb pattern this October featured a large trough in the NE Pacific, which largely prevented Arctic intrusions.

The 500mb pattern this October featured a large trough in the NE Pacific, which largely prevented Arctic intrusions.

The two big features that stand out are the large amount of blocking near the North Pole — particularly the Eurasian side of the Pole, and the large trough in the NE Pacific. The blocking supported a large amount of snow in Eurasia, as the snow cover this year in those regions is among the highest it’s ever been in October. This doesn’t affect our current weather pattern this month so much, but it does lead to the higher probability of a snowy winter.

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John Homenuk

Rain, cold and even snow possible this weekend

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There, we used the “S word” in one of our posts for the first time this season. An energetic mid and upper level disturbance will shift from Central Canada through the Northeast United States late this week into the early part of this weekend, helping to develop a coastal storm. In addition to the coastal storm will come a strong cold front, and a cold Canadian airmass which will drop temperatures into the 30’s and 40’s at times after its passage. With models hinting at the development of multiple surface lows off the coast, the potential exists for not only rain and wind — but some snow in the higher elevations and the first flakes for others.

But the setup remains extremely complicated. The source region of the disturbance means forecast models are already working with a somewhat limited dataset. And, as is often the case with storms in our area, the mid level disturbances will be involved in fragile interactions, all of which will have a major impact on exactly how the storm develops. Confidence, as a result of these small nuances and features, remains very low.

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John Homenuk

Coastal storm lingers, improving weekend

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As meteorologists, you sometimes just have to toss your hands up and admit defeat. And with this weeks Nor’Easter, we’re doing just that. The storm came in much more intense, much more organized, and much more impactful than we forecasted or anticipated it to be. And while our area saw periods of heavy rain and wind from the storm, the system itself was quite dynamic.  Similar to winter Nor’Easters both aloft and at the surface, the storm featured a deepening surface low and a dynamically impressive mid level trough.

Enhanced lift from the developing surface low, which actually retrograded westward from the Atlantic toward Long Island last night, moved over New England and New York City overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. The result was heavy rain, and more noticeably, strong gusty winds mixing down to the surface. The dynamic system featured strong winds just above the surface — and so heavy rain brought these down. Gusts over 50 miles per hour were common throughout New England and Long Island.

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