Pleasant midweek weather takes hold

After several days of unsettled conditions, pleasant weather will take hold once again during the middle part of the work week. High temperatures which reached barely into the lower 60’s on Monday will moderate a bit on Tuesday, with high pressure remaining in control. Warming temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere, partly cloudy skies and light northwest winds will mean temperatures rising into the mid to upper 60’s in many locations. As always, it will be a bit cooler near the coast. But the light offshore winds will keep any major seabreeze or marine impact at bay (no pun intended) for the time being.

Wednesday looks warmer than its predecessor, with further airmass modification and warmer air aloft. Highs may approach the 70 degree mark in the usual warm spots — and light winds with partly cloudy skies will keep it feeling warm and pleasant for the majority of the day. The same may be true for most of Thursday, although increasing clouds late in the day will be a harbinger of things to come as a large and energetic upper level trough begins to dive southward from Canada into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late in the day.

Last week, we posted at length regarding the high latitude blocking which had finally taken hold over parts of Canada, Greenland, and the North Atlantic. We also spoke briefly about how more often than not, these blocking events produce storm systems near our area, and explained how the tail end of next week could be the time frame when we’d see one. Our post read:

In addition, an active stream of disturbances crashing into the United States from the Pacific raises some eyebrows for a potentially phased upper level low; or significant rain event, possibly including a coastal storm. Forecast models have hinted at this possibility as early as Day 7 — as the blocking forces multiple disturbances underneath it into the Central and Eastern United States. Phasing of these disturbances would eventually lead to a moisture surge and potentially coastal development with prolonged rain and wind in our area.

Several days later, now, forecast models are still indicating this storm potential on Friday and Saturday of this upcoming weekend. What remains to be seen is exactly what kind of impacts the storm will have on our area. Forecast models have generally agreed that the worst of the storm will stay seaward from our area but, still, the evolution of the storm system is quite impressive and suggests the development of a notable coastal storm — especially for this time of year.

An impressive, almost winter-like, amplfication of a mid level trough from Central Canada into the Ohio Valley is anticipated by most forecast guidance from Thursday into Friday. This will force the development of a low pressure system somewhere off the East Coast later this week, which will then strengthen and move northward as the upper level low interacts with another separate piece of energy. Strong mid level dynamics could allow for bands of very heavy rain to the northwest of the surface low pressure system off the East Coast.

GFS model showing a significant upper level low pressure system aiding in the development of a Nor'Easter late this week into this weekend.

GFS model showing a significant upper level low pressure system aiding in the development of a Nor’Easter late this week into this weekend.

But the north and westward extent of impacts remain uncertain. If the storm trends farther northwest, a period of heavy rain and strong winds would be possible from Friday into Saturday. A less extreme scenario would bring light rain bands onshore with lesser wind impacts, while a complete miss would obviously keep our area within a zone of generally pleasant weather over the weekend as a storm system amplifies offshore.

The next 24-48 hours will give us more detail into how the forecast will evolve later this week. We’ll have updates and information on the storm system including the latest information from forecast models as we get it. For now, enjoy the beautiful weather to come!