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PM Update: Slightly cool, but pleasant evening

Behind a backdoor cold front, which pushed through the area on Wednesday evening, temperatures stayed cooler on Thursday. A cool, onshore flow can be thanked for that. Luckily, most of the clouds which plagued the area during the early part of the day will move out during the later evening and overnight hours of Thursday, so a generally pleasant evening is expected. Any scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will remain off to our southwest, in the Mid Atlantic States.

Temperatures, however, will stay cool and the onshore flow will continue pushing marine air into the area. This is often a relentless characteristic of Spring in these parts, but it doesn’t make it feel any less chilly! Temperatures will fall into the 40’s overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with east/southeast winds continuing through Friday.

As for Friday itself, it looks to be the first day to start the warming trend over the next several. While the onshore flow and marine air will continue infiltrating the area, a modifying airmass will allow temperatures to warm back up into the 60’s during the afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees warming during the afternoon on Friday than they were on Thursday. Still, clouds may infiltrate the skies during the afternoon, and when the warm sun isn’t shining, it will still feel plenty cool.

If you’re like us, and you’re already looking to the longer range, the weekend looks absolutely spectacular, save for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours on both days. Temperatures will near 70 degrees on Saturday afternoon, and will almost certainly exceed 70 on Sunday. Best of all? The warming trend will continue into the early part of next week, building up to temperatures nearing 80 degrees on Tuesday.

GFS model showing high temperatures in the 70's on Sunday afternoon.

GFS model showing high temperatures in the 70’s on Sunday afternoon.

The thunderstorm threat will increase each day, but they aren’t expected to be severe this weekend. Shear for thunderstorm organization will be meager, keeping an organized event from developing. Still, some storms may be able to produce heavy downpours, lightning and small hail where they do develop both on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

With the warm air early next week will come a cold front late Tuesday — and here’s an early warning that we may see some more organized thunderstorm potential as the front sags southward. At this time, however, inconsistencies among forecast models in regards to frontal timing precludes any specific hazards or risk areas for organized severe thunderstorms. Stick around and stay tuned.