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Showers, thunderstorms likely early this week

UPDATE 4:00PM: Tornado Watch is now in effect from Eastern PA into Western NJ through 10:00pm. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds and isolated tornadoes are possible through this evening in these locations. Stay weather aware and have a plan in place in the case that warnings are issued.

A Tornado Watch means that thunderstorms are possible, and some may be capable of producing tornadoes. While not immediately expected, tornadoes are possible during the watch time and in and around the watch area. Be sure to stay weather aware during the watch time period.

These thunderstorms are expected to move east tonight, but weaken as they head toward Eastern NJ and NYC.

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The warmer weather has finally arrived! After several days of dreary and unsettled weather, temperatures finally warmed up on Sunday with plenty of sun and a nice breeze. A transitional pattern will bring warmer air and a more summery feel early this week — with temperatures rising into the 80’s for highs and humidity rising as well. Along with the rise in temperatures and humidity will come, as usual, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms will be more prolific across the interior Northeast on Monday, with a frontal boundary and ample wind shear allowing for organized convection to form in the Mid Atlantic and much of Pennsylvania. Instability will be late to build into our area — saving us from a more widespread threat for severe weather. But the frontal boundary will remain nearby, even through Tuesday, which will mean a continued chance of storms. Some of these could be strong, with heavy rain and frequent lightning as well as a chance for strong winds.

Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas of the interior Northeast in a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon, and a “Marginal Risk” for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. The main threats with these storms will be gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain — but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out over the interior Mid Atlantic and parts of Pennsylvania.

By the middle of the week, the heat will become the main story. In the wake of thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, mid level temperatures will actually increase as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Eastern United States. Highs on Wednesday through Friday will rise toward 90 degrees in many locations. Scattered storms will be possible each day, but it will feel hot and humid regardless throughout the majority of the middle and end of the week.

NAM model showing highs in the 90's by Thursday afternoon.

NAM model showing highs in the 90’s by Thursday afternoon.

By this weekend, a disturbance riding along the northern periphery of the ridge has the potential to bring organized convection and strong/severe thunderstorms to our area. But the upper 80’s and lower 90’s temperatures will have most focused on the heat and humidity, not thunderstorms.

After last week’s dreary and rainy weather, summer is finally coming.

 

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