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PM Update: Nicer Friday, but unsettled weekend expected

After a “dud” of a day on Thursday, things are at least looking partially “up” for the weekend. Temperatures on Thursday throughout most of the area barely escaped the 60’s and 70’s, with low clouds and drizzle remaining commonplace during the day. A cool, marine flow can be thanked for that. Much of the same is expected through the first half of the evening on Thursday as well, although some increase in humidity should be notable.

By Friday morning, things will start to change for the better. Temperatures will rebound into the 80’s during the day on Friday, with partly cloudy skies anticipated. The marine layer from Thursday will be scoured out of the area, allowing for sunshine to return. The big game changer? Winds turn westerly during the morning — a big difference from Thursday, when they were coming out of the south and east, off the cool area waters.

With these warmer temperatures will come, however, an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast models are in good agreement that a weak disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will track over the region during the day on Friday. With increased sunshine and atmospheric instability, a few thunderstorms are possible — some of which could produce heavy rain and lightning. An organized severe weather threat, however, is not anticipated.

The seasonable weather of Friday will be out of the picture by Saturday once again — we know, this isn’t the best news. Unfortunately, we have the tropical remnants of Bill to point our finger at. The approaching disturbance will help winds at the surface turn easterly again — think about the return of marine air. Damp, cool weather is anticipated on Saturday with plenty of clouds.

The NAM model shows heavy rain in our area on Sunday afternoon.

The NAM model shows heavy rain in our area on Sunday afternoon.

Sunday won’t be much better, as the forcing and disturbance associated with the remnants of Bill approaches our area. A weak surface low pressure system will track from the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast Coast. This will aid in the development of precipitation, some of which could be heavy, during the day on Sunday. Tropical rains with embedded thunderstorms are anticipated for a period of time during the day on Sunday.

While it looks like some clearing is anticipated by later Sunday into Monday, it looks like we’ll have to get through a very unsettled and potentially rainy weekend first.