The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill, currently tracking through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley, will make a move toward our area later tonight into early Sunday morning. The presence of a very moist atmosphere and lots of lift for precipitation will aid in the threat for a period of heavy rain, late Saturday Night into early on Sunday throughout much of New Jersey, NYC, Connecticut and Long Island. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible.
A localized threat for flooding may emerge, as rainfall will become particularly intense along an area of enhanced lift for precipitation. This area of lift will move from southwest to northeast through the area early on Sunday morning. As it does so, very heavy rain with rumbles of thunder are likely — and urban/poor drainage areas will be especially prone to flooding.
Forecast models had been struggling with pinning down the details of the remnants of TS Bill for several days. Wavering with location, intensity, and coverage gave forecasters little confidence moving forward. At this juncture, most models are in good agreement that our area will see a solid drenching overnight. Accordingly, the NWS has issued Flood Watches for the overnight period into Sunday.
The good news? The heaviest rain will be timed during the overnight period. By later Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, some clearing is forecast to occur. Temperatures will warm up and we may even see a few peaks of sun during the afternoon on fathers day. As the atmosphere destabilizes, however, some additional thunderstorms may develop near an approaching frontal boundary. While a widespread severe weather threat isn’t anticipated, a few isolated strong storms are certainly possible.
Things are expected to clear out later Sunday evening into Monday morning — but for now, we prepare for drenching Sunday morning!