Regardless of clouds and isolated showers, this weekend ended up being quite pleasant. The sun was out slightly more than anticipated, and heavy/steady rain generally stayed away from the area. So did the big time heat and humidity, and unfortunately the latter will return to the forecast during this week. Humidity values have already noticeably increased as of Monday afternoon, and rising temperatures will make the air feel uncomfortable this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will be around, but won’t be widespread.
These showers and storms, a function of a transient mid level atmospheric disturbance, will essentially hang around in the forecast for most of the week. While temperatures won’t be “hot” by any means (they’ll top out in the 80’s for the most part), the general airmass will feel uncomfortable and the weather will remain unsettled. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon within the humid and slightly unstable airmass in place.
Individual atmospheric disturbances, as we know all to well, are very hard for forecast models to pin down at longer ranges. Moving into the middle and end of the week, several disturbances look likely to begin sliding eastward along the northern periphery of a building ridge. These disturbance could touch off both showers and thunderstorms, some organized or strong/severe. But their timing, coverage, and intensity remain highly uncertain.
For now, it’s best to signal that the week ahead looks quite unsettled, with the chance of showers and storms each day and warm/humid conditions. Our forecasters will continue monitoring the pattern over the next few days — attempting to pin down the details of any potential organized thunderstorm events.