Today's GFS model valid for next Thursday shows temperatures in the low 90s for much of the region.

Weekend Overview: Pleasant Saturday, then the heat arrives

Good evening! We hope you all have enjoyed this absolutely lovely stretch of weather we’ve had over the past few days, because it’s going to heat up. This is thanks to a large ridge which will be developing across most of the US and will extend into our area. This large ridge will be accompanied by very slow upper-level winds, making it quite slow to move, which means the warm pattern from the ridge will be sticking around.

Fortunately, we have one more very pleasant evening tonight. The warm airmass will be gradually arriving, but we’ll still only be on the periphery of it. This means that the airmass will only be slightly warmer than last night, and humidity will still be pretty low. Temperatures will generally be around five degrees warmer than they were last night.

While some ridging will certainly be in-place tomorrow, allowing winds to shift to a more southerly component with a bit of a warmer airmass, some northern stream troughing in New England will help flatten the ridge somewhat, preventing temperatures from soaring tomorrow. This will also push in some drier air as well, which should be able to keep humidity levels quite comfortable, but also a bit higher than they were today. This means that Saturday looks like another lovely day.

Here are the weather highlights over the next few days:

  • Tomorrow will have mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. While humidity will be a tad higher than today, it will still be at pleasantly low levels.
  • The humidity will continue to increase on Saturday night, as the ridge becomes a bit more established and the trough moves away. While it won’t be humid, the changes will start to be a bit more noticeable. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 60s.
  • The true heat starts on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, though perhaps a bit chillier along the immediate shores, particularly south-facing shores. Dewpoints will have risen into the low to mid 60s, which will make it a bit uncomfortable, but not unbearable. Overnight lows will be around 70.
  • Once early next week comes around, the heat ridge will have fully established itself. This should lead to widespread low 90s for highs, with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 60s, but sometimes around 70. This will make it feel quite hot and humid — a summery heatwave looks to be in-store. This hot weather looks to stick around through at least Thursday, and perhaps even longer than that.
  • For the most part, we are expected to remain dry. There is the slight chance for very isolated showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and onward, but this should generally be relegated to inland areas and should not be enough to cancel outdoor plans.
  • Tropical Storm Erika has continued to track south of forecast guidance, which limits its ceiling for strengthening. The forecast for it remains quite uncertain, but the general trend has been wagons south, which could even place it in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC may eventually shift their cone southward if these trends were to continue.

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