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Transitional weather will continue this week

A pleasant weekend, in the wake of a cold front which brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area on Friday, brought comfortable temperatures and lots of sun. This trend will continue through the early part of the week, on Columbus Day, with temperatures moderating quite a bit. Highs will reach into the 70’s once again as southerly winds return to the forecast.

These southerly winds will increase through Tuesday, as a mid level atmospheric disturbance begins to swing toward the area from the North Central Plains. Forecast models had previously suggested some chance that this disturbance could become entrenched in our area, bringing unsettled weather and rain chances this week. But it appears likely that the disturbance will instead remain progressive, with a cold front crossing the area on Tuesday afternoon.

GFS model showing below normal temperatures and lower than normal heights in the Northeast during the upcoming weekend.

GFS model showing below normal temperatures and lower than normal heights in the Northeast during the upcoming weekend.

With the frontal passage will come cooler, pleasant weather during the mid to late part of the week — essentially from Wednesday onward. Mid and upper level atmospheric heights will fall dramatically from Sunday and Monday through the middle of the week, with temperatures at the 850mb level falling near or below freezing in some areas.

This will generally keep high temperatures in the 60’s and low temperatures quite cool at night and in the morning as well. Interior locations could see several mornings with lows in the 40’s.

The cooler weather pattern is expected to continue through the upcoming weekend as well, with models showing below normal mid and upper level heights in the atmosphere. That being said, the good news: The pattern looks likely to remain generally benign, with no chances for widespread or anomalously heavy precipitation.

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