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Cooler, but still pleasant weather this weekend

In response to warm southerly winds and a mid level atmospheric ridge, temperatures on Wednesday rose into the 70’s throughout much of the area. Temperatures on Thursday will behave similarly, rising again into the mid 70’s in many areas. Southerly winds will continue and, for the time being, the mid level atmospheric ridge will remain over head. But the pattern — in case you haven’t noticed, with below freezing temperatures on Monday — is transient, and the warm temperatures will be scoured out by a cold front by Friday.

Not all is lost, however. After a few showers late Thursday into Friday morning, cooler air in the mid levels of the atmosphere will move overhead, and the wind direction at the surface will turn more west/northwesterly. But pleasant conditions are expected to continue. High temperatures will be notably cooler on Friday than they were on Thursday, but the weather will remain pleasant — a trade off that most of us will surely take, this time of year.

NAM model showing temperatures in the 50's and 60's this weekend throughout most of the area.

NAM model showing temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s this weekend throughout most of the area.

The weekend will offer continued pleasant conditions, and even a warmup as the days go on. High temperatures will gradually move back to warmer, more comfortable positions by Saturday and again on Sunday. The only potential wrinkle in the forecast will be Sunday’s frontal passage, which will bring the potential for a period of unsettled weather during the morning and early afternoon hours.

The weather pattern over the next week or two looks to become increasingly active. While many of us have been spoiled by benign, quiet weather over the past 4-6 months — the strong El Nino and changing wave lengths over the next several weeks will make the changing pattern seem even more dramatic.

An increasing amount of weather activity is expected, with more disturbances and more transient weather conditions through the month of November. If you’re looking for more technical details on why, and what is driving the pattern through November — keep an eye out for a new technical discussion coming later today.