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Clearing out late Sunday, cooler to start the week

Showers, clouds, and dreary conditions were widespread on Sunday morning as a cold front and associated moisture slowly made its way through the forecast area. The moisture and atmospheric forcing for precipitation will shift east of the area by early this afternoon, and as it does so, drier air will begin to filter into the area. This will help skies clear out during the afternoon hours. Mid level atmospheric temperatures will also still remain “warm”, with the coldest air lagging behind the cold fronts precipitation from this morning. So high temperatures on Sunday afternoon may actually be quite pleasant.

Colder air will begin to filter in to the area by Sunday Night into Monday morning, as mid and upper level atmospheric temperatures drop as well. With northerly winds taking over on Monday, high temperatures will struggle into the middle 50’s during the afternoon hours. It will feel quite brisk compared to the past few days, even with abundant sunshine expected. While the cooler temperatures are expected to continue through the early part of the work week, some moderation in temperatures is expected by Tuesday and Wednesday.

This moderation will come with a price, unfortunately. The southerly-turning winds will be a harbinger of bad news, as a low pressure system organizes over the Central United States during the middle part of the work week. Two atmospheric disturbances — one over the North-Central Plains, and another over the Southern states (with remnant moisture from Patricia) — will interact during the middle of the week.

GFS model showing widespread rain in our area Wednesday evening.

As this interaction occurs, a low pressure system will drive through the Great Lakes region and into Canada. Meanwhile, southerly winds and a strengthening low level jet stream will aid in the advection of moisture toward the East Coast by Wednesday, and more specifically the Northeast states by Wednesday evening into Thursday. A period of steady and heavy rain appears likely during that time frame, with Wednesday and Thursday currently both looking unsettled.

This looks likely to be our first organized/widespread precipitation event in quite some time. While it may be dreary, unsettled, and unpleasant, it’s worth mentioning that much of our area is still classified under a Moderate Drought. Conditions have not changed in several weeks, with the category considered a “Long Term” drought, with lingering effects from the very dry summer months. So, while you may have to don an umbrella or a hoodie during the middle to latter part of the upcoming week, the rainfall is needed in our area.

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