Fair, seasonable weather likely on Thanksgiving

A progressive weather pattern, which has brought us unsettled weather during the middle part of the week many times this past month, will finally give us a break. Fair and seasonable weather is expected for Thanksgiving, with no significant weather hazards anticipated during the major travel days before or after the holiday, at least in our part of the country. Precipitation won’t make its way back into the forecast until later Friday Night into Saturday morning, when a cold front crosses the area.

Thanksgiving week will be marked by a transition back to normal temperatures, after a very cold start. Temperatures in the 20’s on Monday morning will only reach into the 40’s during the afternoon, as a very cold airmass settles in to the region. Temperatures aloft are quite cold, even for this time of year, and we certainly will feel the effects of that. The blustery northwest winds during the day won’t help, either.

The most notable trait of the early-week cold air, however, may in fact be its transient nature. Moderating temperatures are anticipated by Tuesday and Wednesday, as mid and upper level atmospheric temperatures warm up. A mid level ridge will build into the area by Tuesday as well, allowing for fair weather with no precipitation expected.

GFS model showing fair weather on Thanksgiving, with a frontal boundary well to our west.

GFS model showing fair weather on Thanksgiving, with a frontal boundary well to our west.

By Wednesday and Thursday, a frontal zone will set up well to our west over the Central United States, specifically the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. For our area, this ensures no brutal cold air, as winds will have a more south and easterly component. But most importantly, it also ensures that no significant precipitation is expected on Thanksgiving.

Temperatures will average a few degrees above normal on Thanksgiving afternoon, and although clouds may make an appearance especially near the coast, it will be a pleasant day for Turkey cooking and family festivities. By this weekend and next week, the weather pattern looks likely to become increasingly active — so enjoy the benign weather and holiday!