GEFS at 384hr

Long-Range Outlook: Late November and December; December 1 Storm Threat


Welcome to our long-range outlook for the next 30-45 days. We hope to provide these outlooks with more in-depth analysis and discussion about every Monday and Thursday. The discussion is divided into several topics to cover all aspects of the model guidance and climate indicators.

For today, we discuss the overall pattern and what to expect going into late November and through much of December.

1. Model Guidance Discussion

The 500mb pattern this week will feature a North Atlantic ridge being suppressed by a deep polar vortex developing over Greenland and Iceland. This is a classic +AO/NAO pattern that typically supports a strong ridge for the East Coast. An -EPO ridge forming over the the Northeast Pacific and Alaska will cause a trough to dig into the Western US. In response, a ridge will build over the Central and Eastern US.

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