With winter still on hiatus, the warm pattern is taking over — and likely taking records with it. A building mid level ridge will be the story this weekend, as a large and energetic storm system digs into the Central United States. Rising mid level heights to the east, over the Ohio Valley and Northeast, will be the first sign of the advection of an anomalously warm airmass. With southerly winds and increasingly warm air in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere, high temperatures will increase each day the end of this week and weekend.
By this weekend, 850mb temperatures (mid to low levels of the atmosphere) will exceed 10 C — which is extremely anomalous for this time of year. If the sun can break through the dense fog, which is likely to settle into the area during the overnight hours each day, highs on Saturday could exceed 60 degrees. This will be especially true away from the coast.
Sunday looks like the true “warm” day of the weekend, after a warm front passes through the area. With mid level temperatures still warm, and not a ton of cloud cover to hamper things, high temperatures are likely to exceed 60 degrees in many areas. Forecast models even indicate the potential for high temperatures over 65 F in parts of Central, Southern and Northeast New Jersey during the afternoon hours on Sunday.
All of this warm air is surging into the area ahead of a major cold front — associated with the aforementioned strong storm system in the Central United States. This front will approach the area on Monday, with an additional temperature surge possible directly ahead of the front. Near the front, heavy rain and gusty winds are likely on Monday. Cooler air will then — temporarily — move back into the area by Tuesday.