Winter returns this week, snow possible Tuesday

It has been an active Sunday throughout the area, with heavy rain, winds, coastal flooding and thunderstorms. A cold front will push through the region this evening, ushering in much colder air both aloft and at the surface. Skies will turn mostly clear overnight, as high pressure builds into the area. Most notably, strong westerly winds will be the driving force in pushing the colder airmass into the area. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 20’s and 30’s by sunrise, with winds gusting as high as 40 miles per hour.

The good news, despite the incoming push of cold, will be mostly sunny conditions on Monday. Temperatures at 850mb (5000 feet up) will fall between -12 and -16 Celsius. This generally supports temperatures in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s — yes, for highs. Wind chills will only reach the teens to lower 20’s during the day. Winter will certainly make its return known, so we suggest bringing the jacket along!

Tuesday is when the weather begins to become more interesting and transitional. Clouds will increase as a weak warm front, associated with a clipper system near the Great Lakes, approaches our area. The bulk of the moisture associated with the front will remain in Upstate New York and New England. Any precipitation during the day in our area will fall as showers, but may transition to snow showers Tuesday Night as arctic air drives into the region.

12z NAM showing snow showers for Tuesday night

12z NAM showing 500mb shortwave passing south of the area with snow showers for Tuesday night

Tuesday Night and Wednesday, a dynamic system in the mid levels of the atmosphere begins to move toward the Northeast Coast. At the surface, the low pressure system (associated with the clipper) will transfer to a secondary low off the coast of New England. This storm system will remain progressive, and develop well to our north and east. It is highly likely that our area will avoid any major impacts from the developing winter storm.

That being said, a frontal boundary hanging near the area is likely to bring an elevated potential for snow showers and squalls on Tuesday Night as the system passes overhead. A few areas are likely to see light accumulations as these bands of snow pass through, with the secondary low pressure developing offshore.

Winter stomps its foot even more on Wednesday, announcing its presence, as arctic air settles into the area and west-northwesterly winds keep the air feeling bitterly cold.

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