Image credit: (PSU Ewall)

Beautiful weather today, some showers and t-storms around Friday & Saturday

Another beautiful day is in-store for the region today. An upper-level ridge over the region will provide the region with clear blue skies and plenty of sunshine today. Temperatures should reach the middle to upper 70s across inland sections of the area. However, light southeast winds will keep temperatures cooler along the coast this afternoon. Temperatures will likely reach upper the 60s to lower 70s by early this afternoon closer to coast, especially over Long Island, New Jersey shore and Coastal Connecticut. Then temperatures will slowly fall along coastal sections for the rest of the day, as a seabreeze looks to develop.

The NAM showing temperatures in middle to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s with light SE winds later today.

The NAM showing temperatures in middle to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s with light SE winds later today (Image credit: PSU Ewall)

Skies will remain mostly clear into early this evening, then become mostly cloudy later tonight as low-level moisture increases with onshore flow and a marine inversion. But it will likely remain dry overnight, with temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 50s. Then the region will be under the influence of large upper-level low traversing through the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next several days.

A cold front and shortwave trough will approach the region tomorrow. Some showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely, as day the wears on. Some heavy rainfall is possible with abundant lift, ascent and low-level moisture. But an onshore flow and more clouds will likely keep temperatures from rising out the middle to upper 60s, especially for New York City and coastal areas. This will result in a more stable airmass that will inhibit stronger thunderstorms.

The GFS showing possible heavy rain with showers and possible thunderstorms on Friday

The GFS showing showers and possible thunderstorms moving through the region with some heavy rain possible and cooler temperatures on Friday (Image Credit: PSU Ewall)

The cold front will move east of the region tomorrow night. Showers and any thunderstorms will diminish during the evening hours and more clearing will take place during overnight hours on Friday. Saturday will begin with more sunshine and south-southwest winds will help temperatures rise back into the lower to middle 70s for highs over inland areas. Parts of Long Island, Coastal Connecticut and south-facing shores will be a little cooler with winds off the Ocean or Sound.

Then another cold front and shortwave through will approach with another chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon or evening hours. At this time, it appears that low-level moisture and instability will be lacking. Therefore organized severe weather hazards are not anticipated. However, stronger shear and steeper mid-level lapse rates with a cold pool aloft could cause a few thunderstorms to become strong or borderline severe. The main threat will be for isolated damaging wind gusts.

NAM showing cold front and shortwave trough with 50kt winds at 500mb moving through the region with showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday evening.

NAM showing cold front and shortwave trough with the left-front quad strong 300mb jet moving through the region with showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday evening.

Therefore the Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for western parts of region for Saturday. Over Long Island and Connecticut, marine influence will likely keep thunderstorms weaker. But heavy rainfall and lightning are still possible anywhere. We will have more updates on the potential for heavy rainfall and any severe weather the next few days.

This system moves east later Saturday night. A cooler airmass from Canada will move into region on Sunday, as a large upper-level low moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast US. High temperatures will likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the region, which is around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. But a warming trend to near or above normal is still anticipated for later next week.