200mb VP anomalies

Premium: Tropical forcing likely to support warmer late May pattern

Cooler temperatures are on their way tomorrow and early next week with a large anomalous upper-level low moving over Northeast. Some waves along stall frontal boundary may also affect the weather during the middle of next week. But we are still anticipating warmer temperatures late May.  We have already discussed of reasons why we believe more warmth is on the way. But a major influence in this pattern shift will likely be tropical forcing from a active MJO event occurring over the Indian Ocean now.

The ensembles guidance still show the AO/NAO turning positive with more troughiness over Greenland/Davis Strait. This will not support as much troughiness or upper-level low over Northeast or Southeast Canada. Also a -PNA pattern will be developing with troughiness digging over Southwest US. This will causes heights to build over much of Central and Eastern United States.

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