Tropical Storm Hermine, is reemerging over the open waters off the Mid Atlantic coast today. The storm is expected to re-strengthen before turning more north and west, closer to the coasts of New Jersey and New York. A prolonged period of onshore winds and heavy rain is expected resulting in the potential for coastal flooding, beach erosion, and localized damage from wind.
What is causing this to happen?
The storm system is emerging back into the waters off the Mid Atlantic after making landfall in Florida. While it will shift northeast the next 24 hours, it will also interact with another disturbance over the Ohio Valley. This will allow the storm to strengthen while turning north and even westerly for a period of time near the East Coast.
Hermine is expected to restrengthen after reaching the waters of the Atlantic, and then turn northwest with an expanding wind field. While no landfall is anticipated in our area, this expansion and strengthening will cause impacts, especially near the coast. Hermine will only only be slowly moving or meandering, just offshore, and it impacts could linger into the middle of next week. Especially for the coastal sections and the area beaches.
What are the anticipated hazards?
A myriad of hazards are possible from late Saturday Night through Monday, and perhaps into Tuesday and Wednesday. The system will meander off the waters of NJ and NY through the early to middle part of next week.
Wind: Strong winds 20-35mph with gusts near or over 40mph are expected from late Saturday evening through Monday from the Maryland shoreline to the New Jersey coast, including Long Island and the NYC Metro. Stronger wind gusts, near or over 60mph, are possible, especially along the Southeast NJ shore. It is possible that some of these winds may last into Tuesday or Wednesday, especially over coastal areas, as Hermine might continue to meander near or just off the coast.
Coastal Flooding: Prolonged onshore winds throughout the above mentioned areas will lead to elevated potential for coastal flooding. This will be especially true along eastern-facing shorelines.Highest risk for major coastal flooding with damage to property will be along the Southeast NJ shore. If you live in a coastal flood zone, make preparations ahead of time to prevent loss of property.
Beach Erosion: Onshore winds for a prolonged period of time and high surf will cause beach erosion along the east facing shores from Maryland to New Jersey, including parts of Long Island. The most significant beach erosion currently appears probable over the Southeast NJ coast.
What should I do to prepare?
Have a plan ready in case of emergency. If you live along the shore, go over your tropical storm safety plan. Be sure to be aware of your location in relation to the ocean and flood zones. Stock up on essentials in the case of power loss.If you live in a flood prone area, take steps to prepare your property now. In addition, remove all loose outdoor objects in case of strong winds. Be aware of coastal evacuation routes.
If you do not live near the immediate shore, have a safety plan in place regardless. Taking these steps to be prepared will help you in case of a power outage or localized damage. Stay tuned to local forecasts and emergency management over the next 24-48 hours for the latest information.