A fast moving, active weather pattern will continue over the next several days throughout the Northeast US. In the midst of a winter that has been best described as “consistently inconsistent”, another winter storm will evolve in the interior, bookended by warmer than normal temperatures. Low pressure moving from the Mississippi Valley into the Eastern Great Lakes is likely to be the initial impetus for precipitation moving into the Northeast US by Tuesday.
Much of this precipitation will be driven by a process known as “Warm air advection” — in other words, the movement of warm air through multiple levels of the atmosphere. Lift for precipitation will move into the Northeast as the afternoon goes on, and the middle layers of the atmosphere will gradually warm from southwest to northeast. This will be suffice to change most areas over to rain in the Mid Atlantic States.
But further north, in the interior and higher elevations of New England, a departing high pressure will allow cold air to settle into the atmosphere’s low levels. This creates a bit of a problem: With warm air aloft, and cold air at the surface, snowflakes will melt on their descent towards our heads. But the surface remaining cold means that sleet and freezing rain could be the predominant precipitation types in parts of Eastern New York and Western CT and MA.
Complicating matters is the fact that the low pressure area is expected to redevelop off the coast of Southern New England. This will allow the warm air advection process to slow, with colder air filtering into the storm system by overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This evolution becomes especially important for areas like Vermont, New Hampshire, Northern Massachusetts and Maine, where the low pressure area redeveloping could allow snow to continue.
Our latest impact map takes all of these processes into account and attempts to lay out a general expected evolution throughout the entire region. Most of the I-95 cities are expected to experience rain, while in the interior, brief periods of icing are possible. The further north one goes, the more significant the event will become; and this will be especially true in New England where notable impacts are possible from mixed precipitation types in Northwest Connecticut and Western Massachusetts, with a light to moderate snowfall event in Northern Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
The rest of the week…
Believe it or not, there is more to the forecast than the midweek winter storm! High pressure will settle in to the Northeast United States during the remainder of Wednesday and Thursday, as a low pressure system which developed off the coast of New England shifts eastwards. This will keep seasonable temperatures in place for a short period of time, before a warmup arrives once again at the end of the week.
Temperatures, by and large, look to average above normal throughout the majority of the Northeast states as the late week and weekend approach. A few disturbances are likely to move from the Central US through the Mississippi Valley as the weekend approaches, with unsettled weather possible particularly in the Mid Atlantic on Friday. Another more significant storm may arrive by the early to middle part of next week.
As we look into the longer range, the pattern looks likely to shift (Again) away from the warm regime and back towards a colder, more active one. But for that, you’ll have to get signed up!
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