All Zones Late-AM Update: More Unsettled Weather, But Some Warmth Late Week?

Happy Tuesday! High pressure will be moving east over Quebec this afternoon. This will cause more northeast winds and a maritime airmass to begin filtering into region. But mostly sunny skies will still help temperatures rise into lower to middle 60s over much of the region, this afternoon.  Areas closer to New Jersey shore, Long Island and Connecticut will more sea-breezes this afternoon keep temperatures upper 50s or around 60.

Dry conditions are likely for tonight. Mostly clear skies early tonight will allow for temperatures will drop in 40s over much of the region. Some of the interior valleys and Pine barrens, may drop into the 30s. But high pressure moving more into Canadian Maritimes and over New England will cause winds turning more out the southeast  tonight and Wednesday. This southeast flow will cause more moisture underneath an inversion in the atmosphere, resulting more low clouds and stratus for parts of the region, possibly later tonight and into Wednesday morning.

These clouds may briefly break for some sunshine during the afternoon hours, as subsidence with high pressure and upper-level ridge builds into region. But overall more cloud cover and more marine influence from southeast flow, will likely keep temperatures rising out of the mid-upper 50s in most areas.

As we go into Wednesday night, it will become mostly cloudy again as a warm front approaches the region. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible some lift and instability gradually increases, late Wednesday and Thursday morning. But some strong mid-level ridging may keep this activity more isolated or further north. So no significant hazards are anticipated for the local region.

Then high pressure departs further into the Atlantic, the warm front may lift northward through parts of the region, Thursday afternoon and evening. This will lead to more clearing and sunshine with southwest winds helping temperatures rise into 60s to lower 70s, especially southwest of NYC. If the warm front stays further south, more clouds and southeast winds will remain and temperatures may not get out of the 50s, in some spots.

Latest guidance indicates low pressure will track east from the Great Lakes to New England on late Thursday night and Friday. This will support the warm front with more rainfall, north of the region. But some scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible as a cold front moves through region sometime Friday. Before the cold front arrives, clouds will mix sunshine with southwest winds. Temperatures rise well above seasonable levels at least in 70s or lower 80s, away from the shore.

Behind the cold front, it will turn cooler and drier again Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will be more seasonable again in upper 50s to middle 60s for daytime highs across the region. Uncertainty still remains high for another storm system with more widespread, heavy rainfall possible by Sunday and early next week. Latest model and ensemble guidance overnight and early this morning, suggest a more progressive solution with active pacific jet that will reduce potential for a major coastal storm or cut-off low with more prolific rainfall totals. But some rainfall is still possible for the region, as moisture will be streaming northward from Gulf of Mexico.

A premium article later this afternoon or evening, will have more technical analysis on this potential for heavy rain early next week, with new model guidance out. Also stay tuned for another zone forecast update by this evening, for the rest of weather this week and this weekend. Have a great afternoon!