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5.14 Zone Update: Storms today, warmup ahead this week

First and foremost, Happy Mothers Day to all of the mom’s out there — including our own — who we are so very grateful to have. After a damp and dreary day yesterday, the sun was a welcomed sight this morning throughout much of the region. A strong storm system is still developing off the New England coastal waters today, the same storm that impacted our region yesterday. Despite the system’s strengthening , drier air has temporarily surged into the Mid Atlantic and parts of the Northeast.

“Self-destructive sun” is one term  meteorologists have used to describe the setup which will unfold throughout the mentioned areas later today. As a second disturbance swings along the western side of the Nor’Easter, moisture will increase and colder temperatures will move into the region — aloft. As temperatures warm up at the surface, the atmosphere will become gradually more unstable throughout the region.

HRRR model showing storms impacting the NYC region today.

HRRR model showing storms impacting the NYC region today.

The disturbance approaching is expected to provide sufficient lift to help develop showers and thunderstorms this afternoon throughout the region, beginning in Northeast PA and Southeast NY and shifting southeastwards into NJ, NYC and parts of Long Island. While not a prolific and/or severe weather event by any means, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be capable of producing torrential rain, some blustery winds, and occasional small hail (you can thank the cold air aloft for that).

These storms will shift southeastward through the region and towards the coastal waters by the early to middle evening hours. Cooler and more damp air will also move in as the storms shift away, as a pool of colder air aloft begins to translate down to the surface this evening. If you’re  heading out, we’d suggest bringing along a jacket or a light sweatshirt. This pool of cold air will settle into the region tonight and into Monday.

The cooler weather will be short-lived to start the week, as the atmosphere begins to undergo significant changes to our west. A large trough digging into the Western USA will act to raise heights east of the Mississippi River, leading to the development of a large ridge in the atmosphere and a warm, southwesterly flow into the Eastern US. Temperatures will, accordingly, rise to near and then above normal by the midweek period.

Temperatures in the atmosphere will warm up significantly by the end of the work week.

Temperatures in the atmosphere will warm up significantly by the end of the work week.

The ridging will continue to become more amplified by late-week and temperatures are expected to rise above normal throughout the region. Forecast models indicate the potential for temperatures well into the 80’s on several days, particularly Wednesday through Friday. The weather will feel more like early-summer than mid to late Spring throughout the majority of the region.

The longevity of the warm air into next weekend is still up in the air, as models struggle with the placement of a cold front pressing down from the north. With some cooler air still lingering in Southeast Canada, we’ll have to watch for a backdoor cold front shifting southward from New England, acting to temporarily mute the warmth. But these details likely won’t be ironed out for a few days still.

We hope you enjoy the rest of your Mothers Day — and we’ll have additional updates this evening and Monday morning!