Monday's 18z GFS showing a lot of rain in the Eastern US over the next 7-10 days (Tropical Tidbits).

Evening Zones: Rain tapers off, but more rain threats ahead

Good evening! Unfortunately, today was a nasty day, filled with numerous bouts of moderate to heavy rain. There was some subsidence in northwest inland areas, where coverage of rain was much more scattered and totals were only 0.25 to 0.5″, with even lesser totals in NW NJ. Rainfall totals increased a bit in the immediate NYC area, with JFK receiving 0.65″ of rain, NYC 0.59″, EWR 0.70″, and LGA: 0.64″ — a solid bout of rain. But generally anywhere from Monmouth County and south, rainfall totals exceeded 1″, with some areas getting between 2-3″ of rain in Southern New Jersey. The ingredients were all certainly there for a prolific rainfall event, but due to last-minute trends for a bit flatter of a height pattern ahead of a ULL, the pattern became a bit more progressive, and the heaviest rain thus stayed south of NYC. If we had the previously forecast height pattern from two days ago, the entire area may have exceeded 2″ of rain. Nonetheless, it was another solid rain event in the midst of a very wet stretch of weather, and there will be more threats of rain over the next week or two.

 

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