Good morning! Some showers that have been moving across the region overnight and early this morning were associated with shortwave energy, undercutting upper-level ridge. More rain is likely to overspread the region from the southwest, later this morning and into early this afternoon, as a frontal system with a weak wave of low pressure along it approaches the region.
Latest model guidance indicates some weak instability and strong moisture convergence along a warm/coastal front with precipitable water values between 1.50” to 2.00”. This will likely rain, heavy at times with some isolated thunderstorms possible over Central and Southern NJ and over parts of Long Island and Coastal CT. Where between 1” to 2” is more likely to fall. Some locally heavier totals are possible from any thunderstorms with torrential downpours and some localized flash flooding, especially in poor drainage and low-lying areas.
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