There is a movie which has become the focus of many jokes, often describing the repetitiveness of life or certain habits. That movie is, of course, Groundhog Day, where the same sequence of events continues to unfold (in slightly different fashion). We’ll save you the lame joke and simply go with this: Another cool and unsettled week of weather is ahead in the Northeast states. An upper level low is forecast to meander across the region, keeping opportunities for rain and storms in the forecast.
With the cooler upper low overhead, temperatures will average cooler than normal for the majority of the week. However, there is finally some good news on the horizon. A changing pattern in the Pacific Ocean looks very likely to shift the upper level pattern downstream across the United States, and within 7 to 14 days time, a large ridge of high pressure could become the dominant force in the Northeast US’ weather pattern.
Monday – Tuesday | Cooler than normal, unsettled
A low pressure system is expected to drift into the Northeast United States during this time frame, associated with a complex and large trough in the atmospheres upper levels. A round of showers and thunderstorms has already rumbled through the Northeast States (you may have heard the thunder this morning in NJ, NY, PA). Additional rounds are also expected later on Monday.With the low pressure system over Pennsylvania and drifting northward into New York State, the development of some atmospheric instability is expected. This, along with modestly favorable wind fields could support another round of showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening, some of which could be stronger and produce torrential rain, lightning and possibly some small hail and blustery winds.
These storms look particularly likely over Northeast PA, Southeast NY and parts of Interior NJ. After a break in the action (in terms of storm coverage and intensity) on Monday Night and early Tuesday, additional rounds of showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon as the upper level low swings through the region again, providing enough lift for precipitation.
Wednesday – Friday | Cooler than normal, unsettled
Unsettled, cool and damp weather will continue for at least the middle part of the week as the upper level low pressure system remains in control of the area’s weather. This will keep temperatures below average and bring continued opportunities for showers. Wednesday looks like a “drier” day on current forecast model guidance, but clouds and moisture will keep the weather feeling raw and cool — especially by June’s standards.The forecast then becomes tricky late week. Forecast models have teetered back and forth with the idea that a perturbation within the upper level low (which will, yes, still be meandering near the region) could amplify enough to develop a low pressure system near the Northeast Coast. Others suggest this storm system will remain seaward. The bad news for our region? Either way, unsettled weather looks possible on Thursday once again and temperatures will remain below average.
A frontal zone will remain near the region on Friday and perhaps Saturday as well, keeping the potential for showers and storms in the forecast despite temperatures slowly rising back towards normal for this time of year.
The weekend ahead | Trending warmer and drier
While the weekend may seem a long way away, we’re already beginning to check out the forecast. The groundhog day referenced pattern looks to finally begin to break this weekend, as a result of several changes in the hemispheric pattern. Namely, a changing pattern in the Pacific Ocean, and a realigning Pacific Jet Stream, will kick off changes that will work their way into the United States by late this week and begin to become noticeable in the Northeast States by this weekend.The large upper level low will be shunted eastward, replaced by a developing ridge of high pressure which will be forming as a deep trough drives into the Western United States. This suggests the long awaited arrival of southwest winds, warmer temperatures, and a calmer weather pattern overall beginning during the weekend ahead.
While we aren’t yet at the point where we are comfortable discussing specifics (temperature, departure from normal,etc) we can say with increasing confidence that this period looks to feature a changed pattern, with a higher likelihood of temperatures near or above normal. We’ll have more details as the weekend draws closer!