That old “light at the end of the tunnel” saying couldn’t be more applicable than it is right now. After several dreary days, and four of five weeks overall featuring unsettled conditions, forecast models suggest that we are finally near the tail end of the cooler and unsettled weather pattern. Isolated showers continued today but many areas were able to see breaks of sun with temperatures averaging several degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
The trend is expected to continue on Thursday, when the Northeast states will luck out during a very close call with a coastal storm system. A disturbance rotating around a larger upper level low, which is still meandering near the Northeast States, will aid in the development of a coastal storm on Thursday. The orientation of the upper level low luckily appears to guide the storm system seaward.
It is, inherently, a very close call. Analysis of the height fields on all forecast models show an alignment that would be favorable for the storm system to track up the coast, if the upper level low over the Northeast was moving just a hair slower, or if the developing system was just a hair more amplified. The graphic below depicts the scenario quite well — check out how the shortwave responsible for the coastal storm just barely swings to the east of the coastal plain.
This provides more good news for us than simply a miss from a Nor’Easter. It also means that as the storm system develops, rising air and heavy precipitation offshore will result in sinking air and drier conditions in the Northeast. So Thursday, which was once an uncertain forecast, now appears more likely to be dry despite the presence and some clouds as this sinking air settles over the region.
The forecast takes one more unsettled turn (see the post title) before the weekend approaches. A frontal boundary approaches the region and may provide some showers and thunderstorms on both Friday and Saturday. But the mid level height field over the region will already be building and rising, in response to a developing ridge over the Northeast states.
This ridge will be the focus of the weather this weekend into early next week. As southwesterly winds strengthen, the warmest air of the season will advect into the region. Temperatures late this weekend and early next week will rise above 90 F on at least two days — and this warm weather may continue into early next week. Quite a turn of events from this week, and it will almost certainly be welcomed with open arms by most.
Stay tuned for details on the incoming heat including temperature numbers, precipitation chances (there are almost always storm chances with heat ridges around here) and more. Have a wonderful Wednesday!