Friday's 12z NAM model valid for Monday evening shows several clusters of strong thunderstorms (Tropical Tidbits).

Thunderstorms with Heavy Rain and Flooding Likely on Monday


After a very nice stretch of weather over the past couple of days, things have changed as we entered the weekend. While there will be some rain chances from today (Friday) through Sunday, we do not expect anything significant during that stretch. This article will focus on Monday, which has a higher potential to produce a myriad of impacts across the area, including strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours and flash flooding.

A strong, dynamic trough will be pushing into the area from the Great Lakes and provide deep southwest flow across the entire atmosphere. This will advect plenty of moisture into the area, with precipitable water values over 2″ — highly supportive of heavy downpours and flash flooding. A strong cold front will also be pushing towards the area out ahead of this system, placing us in a warm sector which with the aforementioned deep southwest flow, should provide plenty of instability as well with SBCAPE values around 2,000 J/KG in some spots.

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