Good afternoon! Our forecasting team continues to monitor Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, currently sitting off the South Carolina coast. The system still looks lacks a well-defined center of circulation this afternoon. However, deep convection has increased around and east of the center. It still possible that storm will gain enough organization for it to be classified as tropical depression or Tropical Storm Irma tonight or Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings have now been issued for parts of the North Carolina coast.
The storm is still underneath some strong west-southwesterly shear. If this becomes a tropical cyclone, it’s unlikely that this system will intensify into a hurricane before becoming a non-tropical storm or Nor’easter by Tuesday night or Wednesday off the Delmarva. Regardless of classification, potential impacts are not likely to change along the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England Coasts. Heavy rainfall will likely spread northward over Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia later tonight. Rainfall totals between 2” to 4” with locally higher amounts are likely. East-northeast winds will likely gust to tropical storm force between 40mph and 60mph.
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