Cold risks emerging to end November

There is something about this time of year that features more fanfare than the rest. Maybe it’s the approach of winter, or the first surge of cold air into the middle latitudes. Either way, it seems that the first week of November almost always features a bit more drama to the forecast than most weeks, and this year is no different. Forecast models have offered hints this week that the pattern may be set to undergo some significant changes as we look towards the end of Autumn. 

As most are aware, the middle latitude pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has been stagnant for quite some time now. Granted, there have been periods of colder than normal air – especially recently in the Northern Plains where departures neared -10 F on a 7 day average. But for the most part, East of the Mississippi River, temperatures have averaged above normal as a Southeast Ridge anomaly has remained stout, owing to La Nina background forcing from the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

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