Good evening! Despite a large sea of warmth expected in the next general 7-10 days, there is a quick shot of cold that will be arriving on Saturday, and a storm system may quickly follow. It may just so happen that this storm will arrive just in time to tap into this quick shot of cold air, and thus deliver an accumulating snow event on Saturday night, and perhaps significant.
Our latest video analyzes this snow threat, and talks about the features that support snow, and the features that do not support snow. In a broad sense, the pattern is very fast-moving and progressive, which typically prevents a large amount of amplification. When combined with a compressed flow from a strong Polar Vortex in Central Canada and a strong Southeast ridge, that may serve to keep the storm weak and sheared out to the south.
However, the initial energy entering the US looks very potent, and a strong temperature gradient with a surge of moisture from the Gulf does support a heavy axis of precipitation developing from the Tennessee Valley and into the Northeast. If everything comes together, a widespread area of 6-10″ of snow would be possible from DC to Boston. But this is a “thread the needle” situation, where it is easily conceivable that the fast-moving flow will shear out the storm system, but also the strong Southeast ridge and departing high pressure (remember, this is a quick cold shot!) will allow for a warmer scenario with more rain to unfold.