Enhanced Risk of severe weather on Tuesday in PA, NJ

The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of PA and NJ in an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. The main threat with strong and severe thunderstorms is expected to be damaging winds, but small hail and tornadoes are also possible. Heavy rain is expected throughout the area.

The threat for strong and severe thunderstorms will be driven by the development of a low pressure system over Pennsylvania. This same low pressure system will then move eastward off the coast. Near and southeast of the low pressure, instability will increase. The combination of instability and ample wind shear will allow storms to form and organize.

The track of the low pressure system will obviously be important. To the north of it, cooler and rainier weather is expected. To the south of it, near more appreciable instability, storms will turn strong and severe on Tuesday afternoon. As of this afternoon, forecast model guidance is in good agreement that the low pressure will track just southwest of NYC.

This suggests that areas like Southeast PA and Central/Southern NJ are at the greatest risk for severe weather, including strong winds and isolated tornadoes. Heavy rain is possible throughout the area.

Here are the highlights over the next few days:

• Calm weather will persist through the evening today. Temperatures will remain warm and clouds will increase during the evening.
• Unsettled weather is likely on Tuesday. In NYC, the expectation is that clouds and rain will limit severe weather potential. 
• Further south in Southeast PA and NJ, strong and severe storms are expected. These will be capable of producing strong winds, flooding and tornadoes. 
• The weather improves once again after this system passes Tuesday evening.
•  Calm weather will persist through the end of the week.

As always, stay tuned for more details and alerts as we move closer to Tuesday.