Severe thunderstorms possible again on Wednesday

Another disturbance is set to move through the Northeast states on Wednesday, and it will bring showers and thunderstorms with it. With instability and wind shear in place, thunderstorms will turn severe during the afternoon hours. While coverage will be scattered, these storms will produce a myriad of weather hazards. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a large majority of the area in “Slight Risk” for severe weather.

Setup for severe weather remains complicated

The atmospheric setup that may produce severe weather remains very complicated. While a low pressure system develops, clouds and showers will move through the Northeast states on Wednesday morning. This creates uncertainty in regards to how unstable the atmosphere will get. In addition, model guidance struggles with these intricate systems – creating a lower confidence forecast.

Current expectations are that storms will form during the early afternoon in the Interior, and begin moving eastward. The most likely area for this activity is Northern PA, Southeast NY, and Western New England. Additional thunderstorms will develop on the southern end of this activity in parts of New Jersey and New York. These storms will all shift eastward toward the coast by late afternoon and early evening.

Here are the highlights, focused on the NYC Metro and surrounding areas:

• Showers and storms are likely on Wednesday, first in the morning. These won’t be severe but will be capable of producing periodic heavy rainfall.
• The atmosphere will become more unstable during the afternoon. Showers and storms will develop again and move through parts of PA, NJ, NY, CT and MA. The worst of this storm complex may miss the NYC Metro to the north.
• Additional storms will develop on the southern edge of – and to the south of – the aforementioned storm complex in NJ and NY. These will be capable of producing small hail, strong winds, and dangerous lightning.
• A localized threat for a few tornadoes may exist across the Lower Hudson and Champlain Valley, but this risk will be conditional and its intensity likely not determined until morning.
• Conditions improve by the time we move into the evening hours and overnight into Thursday, with lower humidity and calmer weather.

Stay tuned over the next several hours for the latest from our forecasting team. Remember to start using #nycstorm to help aggregate reports and photos of storm activity.