Severe Thunderstorm Watch for NJ, NYC until 9:00pm

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the NYC Metro and surrounding areas of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut until 9:00pm. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. In the presence of ample instability and wind shear, storms will be capable of organizing quickly.

The main threats from severe weather this afternoon are expected to be damaging wind gusts, dangerous lightning and torrential rainfall. The potential will also exist for small hail and a few isolated tornadoes.

Observations to our west this afternoon confirm the presence of an EML – or Elevated Mixed Layer. This layer of enhanced lapse rates in the mid levels of the atmosphere (a few thousand feet up) can help to enhance the severity of thunderstorms by initially impeding thunderstorms from forming. In fact, they are often associated with the larger outbreaks of severe weather in the Northeast. Read more about EML’s here.

In the NYC Metro Area and surrounding areas of New Jersey, the main threat for severe weather is expected to develop from 3:00pm through 7:00pm. Storms will form over Pennsylvania and Southeast New York and shift southeastward. Strong winds aloft could mix down to the surface, leading to damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also possible in the Hudson Valley and New England.

Here are the briefing highlights for the remainder of the afternoon:

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9:00pm. Damaging winds, hail and tornadoes all possible
• Worst of the storms is likely from 3:00 through 7:00 in NJ, NYC and CT
• Elevated mixed layer and downdraft potential will enhance the opportunity for severe weather, especially strong wind gusts
• Storms slide off the coast after 7:00pm
• Weather improves late this evening

Stay tuned for further updates this afternoon and evening.