Saturday Briefing: Showers and storms possible this afternoon

An approaching frontal boundary is expected to kick off the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Northeast this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms through tonight.

The weather this morning has been pleasant and is expected to remain that way through the early and middle parts of the afternoon. Humidity is increasing, however, and rising dew points are a signal of the approaching cold front. The atmosphere will become somewhat unstable later today, particularly across the interior.

Showers and storms are likely to form in Eastern PA by the mid afternoon hours, gradually shifting eastward towards NJ and perhaps parts of Southeast NY. These will be mostly non-severe, but some storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Sufficient wind shear exists for storms to become somewhat organized as they move eastward.

With limited atmospheric instability (think of this as gasoline for storms), storms are expected to weaken as they shift eastward towards the coast later this afternoon and tonight. The severe weather threat in the NYC Metro Area is expected to be very limited. A few storms may persist in parts of Southern NJ through tonight.

The frontal boundary eventually shifts through the area by Sunday morning, leading to a brief respite in humidity and warmth. High temperatures on Sunday afternoon are generally expected to approach 80 degrees, with plenty of sunshine and a more comfortable airmass in place.

The warmer and calm weather looks likely to persist until at least the middle part of next week, with temperatures several degrees above normal. By the end of the week, most model guidance is suggesting a notable pattern change will occur. We could be talking about cooler temperatures and rainfall chances by the end of the week and weekend.