Two years removed from Hurricane Harvey, which brought over 60″ of rainfall to parts of Southeast Texas, areas near Houston are experiencing generational flooding once again. Rainfall totals of over 40″ have been reported over the past three days from the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda.
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High pressure will remain in control for the next few days, with calm and dry weather expected. Temperatures will remain cooler and crisp through the end of the week, before warming up this weekend. High temperatures may eventually reach several degrees above normal.
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Tropical Storm Jerry strengthened again today, with maximum sustained winds now at 60 miles per hour. The storm is moving steadily northwestward in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. It is expected to move north of the Antilles later this week, while strengthening into a hurricane.
The eventual track of the cyclone remains uncertain. Most forecast models and ensembles suggest the highest probability scenario is that the system will curve northward and into the open Atlantic. A nontrivial amount of ensemble members, however, suggest the storm could track further south – closer to the Caribbean Islands.
Often times, a large spread in potential solutions or tracks can be overwhelming. For meteorologists and weather forecasters alike, it is important to try and understand the root of these differences. In other words, what is causing each ensemble member to act differently than the others?
In this situation, there are two clear camps in regards to the track of Jerry over the next 5 days. One group (a larger amount of ensembles) take the storm further north and eventually curve it out to sea. Another group (smaller amount of ensembles) take the storm further south, toward the Caribbean Islands.
The members which are further south with Jerry have one thing in common: They are stronger with the storm system over the next 48 hours. The stronger, more organized system responds differently to its surroundings and pushes further southward as a result. The northward members allow the system to drift northward and eventually recurve.
As you may imagine, it will be critical to monitor the storms organization over the next 48-72 hours. We’ll be watching both the organization of the storm and trends among the medium range weather models. Confidence in regards to the storms track should begin to increase steadily thereafter.
Stay tuned for updates over the next few days as the eventual fate of Tropical Storm Jerry becomes more clear.
An expansive high pressure system will build over New England beginning today, leading to a prolonged period warm and dry weather in the Northeast. Temperatures are likely to average a few degrees above normal over the next week, with very little threat of substantial precipitation or significant storms.
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