Tropical Storm Jerry strengthens, recurve not a guarantee

Tropical Storm Jerry strengthened again today, with maximum sustained winds now at 60 miles per hour. The storm is moving steadily northwestward in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. It is expected to move north of the Antilles later this week, while strengthening into a hurricane.

The eventual track of the cyclone remains uncertain. Most forecast models and ensembles suggest the highest probability scenario is that the system will curve northward and into the open Atlantic. A nontrivial amount of ensemble members, however, suggest the storm could track further south – closer to the Caribbean Islands.

Uncertainty rooted in Jerry’s strength

Often times, a large spread in potential solutions or tracks can be overwhelming. For meteorologists and weather forecasters alike, it is important to try and understand the root of these differences. In other words, what is causing each ensemble member to act differently than the others?

In this situation, there are two clear camps in regards to the track of Jerry over the next 5 days. One group (a larger amount of ensembles) take the storm further north and eventually curve it out to sea. Another group (smaller amount of ensembles) take the storm further south, toward the Caribbean Islands.

The members which are further south with Jerry have one thing in common: They are stronger with the storm system over the next 48 hours. The stronger, more organized system responds differently to its surroundings and pushes further southward as a result. The northward members allow the system to drift northward and eventually recurve.

As you may imagine, it will be critical to monitor the storms organization over the next 48-72 hours. We’ll be watching both the organization of the storm and trends among the medium range weather models. Confidence in regards to the storms track should begin to increase steadily thereafter.

Stay tuned for updates over the next few days as the eventual fate of Tropical Storm Jerry becomes more clear.