Showers and storms expected this evening, unsettled pattern to continue

After battling through a few weeks of colder than normal weather, we have now made the jump straight to high humidity and warmth. How exciting! In all seriousness, summer-like weather is, at least for the time being, here to stay. Temperatures today will approach the 80’s and humidity levels will once again be sky-high with rising dew points and atmospheric moisture content.

To our west, a frontal boundary will gradually shift towards the coastal plain. The combination of instability, enough wind shear, and lift will lead to the development of storms. These are most likely in parts of Pennsylvania, Upstate New York and New Jersey. Storms will very gradually shift eastwards later this afternoon and evening. Stronger storms will be capable of producing hail, strong wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Eventually, as we move closer to dinner time, storms may begin to organize into a broken complex. This complex should gradually shift eastwards into New Jersey and perhaps towards the NYC Metro Area while gradually weakening. Some heavy rain and lightning is possible, but severe weather is likely to stay west of the NYC Metro Area as a general rule today.

After the front clears the area later this evening, pleasant weather is expected this weekend. Expect high temperatures in the 70’s on Saturday and Sunday, which is actually on the cooler side for this time of year. Generally pleasant weather should persist into the early part of next week.

By midweek, we’ve got our eyes on an expanding ridge of high pressure across the Central United States. This is important for our area, too, as it will allow warmth and instability to develop there, and occasionally be deflected towards our area as well. With an active jet stream pattern in place, any warmth and instability could act to foster a breeding ground for strong or severe storms, so we will be keeping a close eye on the pattern through the middle and end of next week.