NYC Forecast: Prolonged stretch of pleasant weather expected

Everyone should become familiar with the term “cutoff low” over the next week, as it may become both your friend and foe. A prolonged stretch of pleasant weather is likely in the next few days, through at least Wednesday, as a cutoff low drifts into the Mid Atlantic States. This cutoff low will be responsible for deflecting abnormally warm temperatures northward into Canada, and keeping cool and rainy weather southward in the Carolinas. The NYC Area will be comfortably sandwiched in between.

A cutoff low occurs when a trough in the mid levels of the atmosphere separates from the main mid level jet stream. This leaves the cutoff low spinning on its own, detached from the broader westerlies. Depending on their location and strength, cutoff lows can often bring unpleasant and unsettled weather. In this case, the cutoff low will drift southwards, with unsettled conditions likely in parts of the Mid Atlantic.

For the NYC Area, the positioning of the cutoff low will guarantee pleasant weather through at least the middle of the upcoming week. It will also deflect warmth northwards into Canada, suggesting that high temperatures should average near or slightly below normal for this time of year. Very little precipitation will fall through Wednesday.

Eventually, though, this cutoff low will drift northward. This is when the forecast gets a bit more uncertain – from Thursday into Friday of the upcoming week. There are some indications that showery and unsettled weather from the system could reach northward into New England. The timing and intensity of any rainfall remains a major question mark at this range.

Regardless of how that cutoff low evolves, the forecast is almost certain to become more active as we move towards the weekend. The movement of the low itself will re-introduce our area to active mid level jet stream, suggesting that temperatures could warm and precipitation events could become more frequent yet again.

For now, I think I speak for all of us when I say: Let’s enjoy these next several days of warm, low humidity weather!