NYC Forecast: Active weekend ahead, another cutoff low en route

Highlights: Humidity will rise again later today, and temperatures will warm up again by Friday. Active weather is likely this weekend, with the chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially on Saturday. Active weather will persist into next week.

QuickCast

Hazards: Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon.

This afternoon: Warm and comfortable with temperatures in the mid 80’s. Dew points increase as we move later into the evening, a light breeze persists.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer than last night. Lows in the upper 60’s to near 70.

Friday: Warmer and more humid once again. Highs in the upper 80’s with a light breeze.

Detailed Forecast Discussion

Changeable weather is back in the forecast, and after a brief respite from the humidity we anticipate rising dew points once again later this evening. Temperatures will remain relatively comfortable, but the airmass will begin to feel heavy once again. Conditions turn more active this weekend, with a frontal boundary approaching the area on Saturday and leading to the potential for strong thunderstorms. Next week, the weather looks to remain active.

Friday (6/26): Mostly pleasant conditions are expected, although temperatures and dew points will be higher than they were on Thursday. Expect highs in the middle to upper 80’s, with the chance for some isolated afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across the interior. Mostly clear conditions are likely during the evening, but temperatures will be noticeably warmer than they were over the past few days. Low temperatures in and around the city may not drop below 70 degrees.

Saturday (6/27): An active weather day is likely, with a front approaching from the north. Showers are possible during the early morning hours with a warm front nearby. Thereafter, anticipate some clearing and warming temperatures once again. Redevelopment of showers and storms is likely during the afternoon hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, mainly west of the NYC Metro. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a Level 2 (Slight) risk of severe thunderstorms as a result.

Storms are currently most likely to occur across parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey during the early to middle afternoon hours. These may shift into parts of the NYC Metro during the late afternoon or early evening. As mentioned, the best chance for severe weather is in the interior, but heavy rainfall is still possible from storms impacting the city proper.

Extended Forecast

There has been minimal change to the ongoing forecast expectation. An upper level low is expected to drift southward from Canada next week. While the details of timing and intensity are uncertain, the position of the upper low should encourage a northeast flow, which would suggest cooler temperatures and a chance of showers through the middle of the week – with heat and humidity temporarily deflected away from the area again.