NYC Forecast: Active weather continues through midweek

Highlights: Active and unsettled weather will continue this week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warm into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s by later in the week, with warmth continuing into the weekend. 

QuickCast 

Hazards: A few showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon.

This afternoon: Seasonably warm, with highs in the 80s’. North winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour. Isolated to scattered showers and storms likely after 2pm, continuing into the early evening.

• Hazards: Storms, a few strong, could contain heavy rain, gusty winds and hail
• Timing: 2pm – 8pm

Tonight: Showers and storms tapering off. Lows in the middle 60’s with a light east breeze. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a few showers and storms expected during the afternoon and evening once again. Highs a bit warmer, in the mid 80’s.

Detailed Forecast Discussion

An upper level low is spinning over the Northeast states this week, and will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Instability and wind shear in the atmosphere will be somewhat marginal, but a few strong/severe storms are possible. High temperatures are likely to be closer to 80 degrees today, but will climb gradually warmer as we move towards the weekend. By Independence Day, expect highs in the upper 80’s to near 90, with rising humidity and plenty of sunshine.

Wednesday (7/1): Partly cloudy conditions are expected to start the day, but showers and some thunderstorms will likely return by the afternoon hours. Once again, a few strong to severe storms will be possible locally. Sea breeze fronts could locally enhance the potential for strong winds or hail. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the 80’s with light east/northeast winds.

Thursday (7/2): The disturbance over the area begins to slide away, with warmer and calm weather settling in. Temperatures will trend warmer, into the upper 80’s, but conditions are expected to remain mostly dry.

Extended Forecast

Later this week, high pressure will remain in control of the areas weather. This is likely to lead to a period of dry, warm weather through the weekend. There are some indications on the latest forecast model guidance that ridging could expand from the Central US towards the area next week. This could lead to a prolonged period of much warmer temperatures, with highs in the 90’s for several days in a row. Confidence is quite low in exactly how the pattern evolves, but is rising overall for a period of warmth and humidity extending through mid-July.