Hurricane Epsilon strengthened to a major hurricane today, and now has maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane will pass east of Bermuda in the next few days before turning into the North Atlantic Ocean. Epsilon is the second straight major hurricane, following Hurricane Delta which moved into the Gulf of Mexico a few weeks ago.
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Briefing: Generally quiet weather is expected this week. Temperatures will warm well above normal as the week goes on with only a few chances of scattered showers on Tuesday. Pleasant weather will then return through the weekend. Tropical Storm Epsilon formed in the Atlantic this morning, continuing a record breaking hurricane season.
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Briefing: Steady rainfall will persist for the next few hours, as a low pressure system develops off the New England coast. Periods of rain will continue into Saturday morning. Thereafter, improving conditions are likely for the remainder of the weekend.
Tonight: Periods of rain continuing with dreary and cool conditions. Temperatures in the 50’s throughout the area.
Saturday: Rain in the morning hours, tapering off quickly with improving conditions throughout the day. Cool and blustery with highs only in the lower 60’s.
Sunday: Pleasant, cool and blustery with plenty of sunshine. Highs in the lower to middle 60’s.
Regional analysis this afternoon showed moisture pooling along a frontal boundary which is situated along the East Coast, conveniently right near the NYC Metro Area. A low pressure system is gradually developing off the coast and is expected to deepen near New England later tonight and Saturday. In the meantime, however, rainfall is expected to continue.
This afternoon and evening will likely be defined by dreary and gross conditions as a result. Short term models suggest the potential for an additional half-inch of rainfall as this system evolves. Once the deep low pressure develops in New England, drier air will be gradually pulled in from the west. This will shut down the rainfall and reduce moisture, with cooler and drier conditions taking over by Saturday morning.
The weekend looks likely to provide classic Autumn weather. Temperatures will top out in the lower 60’s, with a bit of a blustery westerly wind. There will be plenty of sunshine, with temperatures only a few degrees below normals for this time of year.
The pattern into next week becomes a bit more complicated. We’re closely watching the evolution of high latitude blocking, as well as keeping an eye on the tropics. Some guidance is suggesting the potential for the organization of a tropical system in the Southwest Atlantic as well as the Caribbean. Both of those areas will be monitored closely this weekend, though it’s far too early to determine what (if any) impacts those systems will have on our area’s weather.
Briefing: Pleasant weather will continue for the next two days with high pressure in control. Another coastal storm will develop this weekend, with a strong low pressure developing off the coast of New England. Periods of heavy rainfall will occur in the NYC Area from Friday into Saturday morning. Clearing, but cooler weather is then likely this weekend.
Tonight: Mostly clear and calm. Lows in the middle 50’s with a light southwesterly wind.
Thursday (10/15): Mostly sunny and warmer, with highs in the mid 70’s. Light southerly winds.
Friday (10/16): Increasing clouds with showers likely late. Rain becoming heavy at times during the evening hours. Light southwest winds.
The weather is expected to remain calm and pleasant for the next few days, with high pressure in control. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures and calm conditions on Thursday. Temperatures will average several degrees above average on Thursday, with highs in the middle 70’s.
By Friday, the atmospheric pattern will amplify across the United States. This can be traced back to the presence of anomalous high latitude blocking in the Arctic. A deep trough and associated disturbance will move into the Ohio Valley and then amplify off the East Coast. Meanwhile, a frontal system will setup near the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states.
As the low pressure system begins to develop, the jet stream in the upper levels of the atmosphere will become increasingly amplified. This will allow for increased lift for precipitation, and rain is expected to develop on Friday afternoon and evening. Conditions will go downhill Friday night with continued showers and dreary weather.
One bit of good news will be the progressive nature of the storm. A coastal storm system is expected to develop near New England on Saturday, but it will be quick moving and will shift into Eastern Canada in short order. This will allow drier air to shift back into the region on Saturday, with improving conditions for the weekend.
Temperatures this weekend will average cooler than normal, with westerly winds in the wake of the developing storm system to our north and east. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday are only expected to reach the lower 60’s.