Skywatchers and astronomers across the Northern Hemisphere are in for one heck of a treat over the next week. Comet Neowise, a retrograde comet which passed close to the sun on July 3rd, 2020, is the brightest comet visible from earth in the last 23 years.
The comet has brightened by 100 times over the past two weeks, and is expected to continue brightening in the past few days. It is clearly visible in the evening and early morning skies across the Northeast United States, and will remain that way until next week. From that point forward, the comet will begin to fade away – and won’t be seen again for another 6,800 years.
Tropical Storm Fay officially formed on Thursday evening, designated by the National Hurricane Center at 5:00pm EDT. The tropical disturbance had spent the day strengthening and organizing in the warm waters off the coast of North Carolina. The storm will shift quickly northward, impacting the NYC Area with heavy rain and wind on Friday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the NYC Metro Area from 6:00am on July 10th through 2:00am on July 11th.
Maximum sustained winds are currently near 60 miles per hour and the storm is moving a northward at 12mph. Over the next 12 hours, the storm is expected to pick up speed and move to a position near Tom’s River, NJ by 5pm on Friday. By 8am Saturday, Tropical Storm Fay will be well inland over New York State or Vermont and weakening to Tropical Depression.
Highlights: Showers and thunderstorms, some strong and severe, are expected this afternoon. A pleasant and somewhat cooler day is likely for the Fourth of July. Heat and humidity will return to the forecast by next week, when a heat wave looks increasingly likely.
QuickCast
Hazards: A few showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon.
This afternoon: Warm temperatures are likely, with highs in the lower 90’s. The air will feel increasingly humid as the day goes on and showers and thunderstorms will develop by the afternoon. These will move in to the area from the north (different, we know!), and may pose a threat for strong wind gusts and hail, along with dangerous lightning.
Hazards: Storms, a few strong, could contain heavy rain, gusty winds and hail
Timing: 2pm – 8pm
Tonight: Showers and storms could persist into the early evening, but will gradually taper off. Lows in the mid 60’s to near 70 in the city.
Independence Day (7/4): Partly cloudy and noticeably cooler. Less humid, too, with highs in the mid 80’s.
HRRR model showing showers and storms in the NYC Metro Area later this afternoon.
Detailed Forecast Discussion
The weather will remain unsettled for one more day, as an upper level low makes its grand exit from the region. This is the same upper level low that has spun around in our area for the entire week, providing several days of showers and thunderstorms. Expect temperatures to become much warmer as we head into the afternoon with humidity rising as well. Atmospheric instability will build, and showers and storms will develop after 1pm, across portions of New England at first. Gradually, these will build southward towards the NYC Area.
Strong, gusty winds and some small hail are possible. While weak wind shear will limit the threat for severe weather overall, the potential will exist for severe storms at times. Local enhancement of these storms could occur along any sea breeze boundaries – like we saw a few days ago.
Independence Day (7/4): The main story on the Fourth of July will be less humidity, as the upper level low will begin shifting away from the area. This will very likely be the coolest day for at least a week. High temperatures will only reach the middle 80’s with a nice, dry breeze.
Sunday (7/5): The airmass near the area will quickly become more humid and warm once again as ridging and high pressure build in. South/southwesterly winds will begin to usher in warmer air and temperatures will rise closer to 90 degrees during the afternoon.
Euro ensemble showing high and low temperatures above average in the NYC Area for the foreseeable future.
Extended Forecast
Forecast models are in excellent agreement that for the first time this summer, ridging and high pressure will build into the Northeast without any resistance. This will allow heat and humidity to surge towards the region unabated by next week. The result will be several days of warm, southwest winds. Accordingly, model data agrees that a heat wave is possible during the middle of next week. In fact, there could be several days in a row with high temperatures over 90 degrees in the NYC Metro Area. This heat and humidity looks likely to persist at least towards next weekend, at which point the longevity of it becomes unclear.
Highlights: Active and unsettled weather will continue this week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warm into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s by later in the week, with warmth continuing into the weekend.
QuickCast
Hazards: A few showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon.
This afternoon: Seasonably warm, with highs in the 80s’. North winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour. Isolated to scattered showers and storms likely after 2pm, continuing into the early evening.
Hazards: Storms, a few strong, could contain heavy rain, gusty winds and hail
Timing: 2pm – 8pm
Tonight: Showers and storms tapering off. Lows in the middle 60’s with a light east breeze.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a few showers and storms expected during the afternoon and evening once again. Highs a bit warmer, in the mid 80’s.
Detailed Forecast Discussion
An upper level low is spinning over the Northeast states this week, and will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Instability and wind shear in the atmosphere will be somewhat marginal, but a few strong/severe storms are possible. High temperatures are likely to be closer to 80 degrees today, but will climb gradually warmer as we move towards the weekend. By Independence Day, expect highs in the upper 80’s to near 90, with rising humidity and plenty of sunshine.
An upper level low is situated over the area this week, providing unsettled weather with chances for storms each afternoon.
Wednesday (7/1): Partly cloudy conditions are expected to start the day, but showers and some thunderstorms will likely return by the afternoon hours. Once again, a few strong to severe storms will be possible locally. Sea breeze fronts could locally enhance the potential for strong winds or hail. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the 80’s with light east/northeast winds.
Thursday (7/2): The disturbance over the area begins to slide away, with warmer and calm weather settling in. Temperatures will trend warmer, into the upper 80’s, but conditions are expected to remain mostly dry.
Extended Forecast
Later this week, high pressure will remain in control of the areas weather. This is likely to lead to a period of dry, warm weather through the weekend. There are some indications on the latest forecast model guidance that ridging could expand from the Central US towards the area next week. This could lead to a prolonged period of much warmer temperatures, with highs in the 90’s for several days in a row. Confidence is quite low in exactly how the pattern evolves, but is rising overall for a period of warmth and humidity extending through mid-July.
https://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/patrick-tomasso-SVVTZtTGyaU-unsplash-scaled.jpg17052560John Homenukhttps://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Empire-2000-x-300-px-2.pngJohn Homenuk2020-06-30 05:30:572020-06-29 23:41:25NYC Forecast: Active weather continues through midweek
Hi friends! Our website uses cookies to provide an optimal browsing experience for you. New "Cookie Consent" laws mandate us to inform you of this. As long as you're cool with it, just hit OK. You'll only see this message once.
We may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.
Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.
Essential Website Cookies
These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.
Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refusing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.
We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.
We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.
Other external services
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.
