John Homenuk

A message regarding COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

/1 Comment/by

New York Metro Weather is a weather website first, and will always remain that way. Our main goal and focus will always be to provide accurate, reliable weather forecasts. We are not doctors, biologists, or virologists and we will not claim to be experts on how to handle this ongoing situation. With that being said, we have received questions regarding coronavirus procedures and decided it was in our best interest to provide some thoughts on how to best proceed.

Meteorologists and emergency managers are used to functioning in these types of situations, and communication is essential. One of the most important issues we face before almost every major weather event is confusion regarding what to do. This is why we always try to simplify our message so that everyone can understand it. We will try to continue these same practices here. Let’s start with this very important fact:

We are taking COVID-19 (coronavirus) very seriously. You should be doing exactly the same thing.

What is COVID-19 (Coronavirus)?

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory illness that can spread from person to person. The virus that causes COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus that was first identified during an investigation into an outbreak in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 can be spread from person to person quite easily.

The virus is thought to spread mainly between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet) through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. It also may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

Symptoms can vary, but often include pneumonia in both lungs, multi-organ failure and in some cases death. For more information on COVID-19 from the World Health Organization, please read this one-page briefing.

The importance of social distancing

Social distancing is likely the best, most effective and proven tool in reducing a full-blown outbreak of COVID-19 by reducing the spread from person to person. This is the exact reason why sports have been suspended, why many schools have been closed, and why mass gatherings are being reduced and/or prevented.

Make no mistake about it – these are the right decisions. This is not panic, nor is it fear mongering or overreaction. It is exactly what is required in order to stop the rapid spread of COVID-19. However, further steps need to be taken beyond things like sports or mass gatherings, and they involve you.

A visualization of the importance of social distancing from John Hopkins.

That’s right, you need to step up too.

Social distancing in your daily life involves things like staying at home as much as possible and keeping 6 feet of distance between you and others when you can. It involves making the smart decisions and not going out to crowded restaurants, bars or mass gatherings and events. These things won’t necessarily be easy to accomplish, and are certainly disruptive to the life we have grown accustomed to.

But social distancing is critically important. This is especially true in a place like New York City, where on a typical day we come into close contact with hundreds, if not thousands of people. It is time to be smart about this – because if we are not, COVID-19 spread could become very, very problematic right in our very own backyard. For more on social distancing practices, please see this article from The Atlantic.

Stick to the essentials

Let us be the first to tell you: You do not need to buy pounds of toilet paper.

One of the biggest problems we face as society during major or disruptive events is the hoarding of certain items. Before every major snowstorm, NYC Metro Area shelves are bare from those who decide to buy bread and milk. Now, as COVID-19 reaches the United States, people have decided it is time to purchase inordinate amounts of toilet paper.

When you go to buy food or supplies, please buy only what you need. Buying mass quantities of items such as toilet paper, bread, milk or water is selfish. It leaves supplies for everyone else and causes problems with restocking and resupplying at the grocery story. Do not hoard items.

For some advice and context on what to purchase and how to do it safely during social distancing practices, see this article from The Atlantic

Be kind, take care of each other

While social distancing is something we must all become comfortable with, it’s equally as important that we take the time to help out the people around us. It’s important to remember that everyone reacts to these situations differently. For many of us, this is one of the most disruptive periods in our lives so far.

Check on your neighbors and friends. Touch base with people who you know may have a more difficult time getting outside and obtaining supplies (the disabled or elderly, for example). Most importantly, be patient with people and try to understand different perspectives on the ongoing situation.

Finally, take some time to appreciate those around you. There are emergency managers doing very important work, workers stocking the shelves of your grocery stores and small businesses that are suffering because of the ongoing COVID-19 measures. Buy a gift certificate to your favorite restaurant to use later on. Say thank you to the kind woman who is restocking the cheese on Isle 4 at Trader Joes.

Ultimately, the only way to get through this effectively is if we do it together. Be smart, be kind, and do everything that you can to help. There is no place better at dealing with moments like this than New York City. It’s time for us all to step up.

John Homenuk

Strong coastal storm possible later this week

/1 Comment/by

Forecast model and ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a strong coastal storm will develop later this week. A disturbance diving southward from Canada is the main culprit, as it interacts with a secondary disturbance near the US East Coast. The exact timing and details of the disturbances evolution will go a long way towards determining impacts in the Northeast US.

While not currently anticipated, winter weather could become a possibility with this system. This would be especially true if the coastal storm is able to rapidly strengthen near or south of our latitude.

Breaking down the setup

Two disturbances at 500hPa could interact later this week, leading to a coastal storm

As is the case with most coastal storms, the setup is quite intricate. There are a few key components:

  1. A disturbance moving eastwards from Texas into Dixie Alley and then towards the Mid Atlantic Coast
  2. Another disturbance diving southward from Canada into the Great Lakes and eventually Northeast States
  3. A large ridge in the Western United States

Ensemble guidance strongly suggests that the disturbance over the Great Lakes region (Disturbance No. 2 above) will drive southeastwards. This will allow it the opportunity to interact with, or potentially phase with, the disturbance over the Mid Atlantic coast (Disturbance No. 1 above).

The result of this interaction and amplification could be the development of a strong coastal storm. As you might imagine, the exact details of how these two features interact will have huge implications on the coastal storm that develops and the resulting forecast.

ECMWF Ensemble members showing several very strong coastal storms

At the moment, ensembles are in unusually strong agreement that a notable coastal storm will develop. The exact track of the system is uncertain, but the signal is strong for this range (3-5 days) with almost all ensemble members indicating a storm of some sort.

Potential impacts in our area

A myriad of impacts are possible throughout the Northeast states from this system, including but not limited to significant snowfall, snow squalls, coastal flooding, and strong wind gusts. Exactly how the system evolves will have a huge impact on the weather observed in our area.

At the moment, the storm looks likely to rapidly strengthen just – and we cannot stress this enough, just – far enough east for the NYC Metro area to avoid significant impacts. Still, even with the current thinking, the potential for snow squalls and blustery winds will exist.

The potential exists for a late season winter storm with this system, particularly in parts of New England. The further south/west the storm tracks, and the faster it strengthens, the more widespread wintry weather impacts could be – even in our area. The further east or more progressive it remains, the less likely impacts will be.

Stay tuned over the next few days for more details, and be sure to follow along on our social media accounts for more updates on the potential storm system.

John Homenuk

Cool and pleasant weekend, more rain early next week

/1 Comment/by

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: More rain, and zero snow, is in the forecast.

We’ll start with some good news. Pleasant weather is likely to continue for the next few days, taking us through the weekend, as a cold high pressure remains in control. While it will be chilly, with temperatures below average for some periods of time, temperatures will eventually moderate. Plenty of sunshine is expected, with no hazardous weather through Sunday.

Read more
John Homenuk

Drizzle likely today, cold air returns thereafter

/0 Comments/by

Dreary and drizzly conditions are expected to continue today, as the atmosphere remains moist and period lift moves through the area – both necessary ingredients for light precipitation. The majority of heavy precipitation will remain to our north, over New England.

Similar to most storms this winter season, the threat for winter weather in the NYC Metro Area will be quite low. Most cold air will remain to our north in New England, where light winter weather impacts are more likely.

After the rain and drizzle move through our region today, colder air is expected to temporarily surge into the Northeast. High temperatures from Wednesday through Friday will be near or slightly below seasonal averages for the date, which after several days of above normal temperatures will certainly feel chilly.

The longer range pattern looks to remain active, with volatile weather expected. A few storm systems are likely to eject from the Rockies in 5-7 days, moving eastward into the Great Lakes and New England. Winter weather potential will remain quite low, but unsettled/rainy weather will likely return during this time.

The year without a winter in NYC looks likely to continue, and at this juncture there are very few signs supporting additional snowfall of any significance.