Snowstorm cleanup begins, but wintry pattern will continue
Northern NJ and the NYC Metro Area were left digging out from more than 15 inches of snowfall on Tuesday morning, after a significant snowstorm impacted the area on Monday. A wintry weather pattern is likely to continue, with cold and additional snow chances as soon as this weekend.
The heaviest snow accumulations occurred in Northern New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania, as expected. Several snowfall reports in those regions exceeded 2 feet, with isolated reports of 30″ (Mendham, NJ). Central Park reported 17.2″, which makes Monday’s storm the 15th biggest snowfall since records began there in 1869.
Cold and wintry pattern will persist into mid February
Snow lovers can rejoice at the most recent ensemble guidance through the middle of the month of February. The pattern which produced a significant snowstorm in the Northeast over the past few days doesn’t appear to be going anywhere.
In fact, guidance in great agreement that another high latitude ridge will develop over Greenland and parts of Central Canada. These blocks are notorious for “blocking traffic” in the atmosphere to our north and dislodging cold air southward towards our area. This means that not only are storms more likely to form, but they have more cold air to work with than usual.
With a high latitude block expected to reform over the next week, signals for snowfall have been re-emerging on ensemble guidance. The first chance may come later this weekend, when a polar disturbance surges southward from Canada. There are mixed signals in regards to exactly how the storm threat will evolve, and the potential exists for the storm to remain mostly offshore. Our current forecast favors this coastal system to remain too progressive to impact the area with any significant snow.
Whether or not a big coastal storm forms, the airmass will become very cold as a piece of the polar vortex drops towards New England. Ensemble data agrees that temperatures will fall significantly below normal as we move into the weekend and then the early part of next week.
The peak of the cold looks to arrive during the early part of the week, when model data suggests that low temperatures could fall into the single digits in parts of the NYC Metro Area. This would likely rival the coldest air of the season so far.
Snow chances will likely persist after this cold surge. Often times, it isn’t until the cold relaxes that the bigger chances for snow emerge. Remember the surge of arctic air this past weekend? The large snowfall followed that cold by just a few days. That would place us sometime in the early to middle part of next week for our next snowfall threat of significance.
We’ll keep a close eye on developing snow threats over the next few days. For now, most of us will continue to dig out from the snow which is already on the ground. Enjoy the snow!
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