Mailbag: When’s winter coming?

Hello NYC! We made it through another anomalous rainstorm. Conditions are finally clearing out a bit this afternoon, which has finally given us a chance to answer your questions. Welcome to the third edition of our weather mailbag! You hit us with some great questions, once again. We did our best to answer them all, but if we didn’t answer them here we promise they’ll be in next weeks mailbag!

@meabap (Twitter): Does it look like we’re gonna have a snowy cold winter or a mild one? Is it too early to tell?

This seems like a great time to announce that we will release our 2021-2022 Winter Forecast next Friday, November 5th, 2021! We’ll have all the details on what we expect during the winter ahead. To answer your question directly, it’s still just a bit early – but we are starting to get a great handle on how we expect the winter will play out.

@alexanderhall (Twitter): The avg date of first measurable snowfall in Chicago is Halloween – what is it here?

We’re jumping right into winter stuff this week, huh! The average date of the first measurable snowfall in NYC is during the second week of December, December 10-14 to be exact. Data was a little inconsistent in spots, so it was hard to put a specific date down, but the second week of the month was where most of our averages and calculations pointed to.

It’s worth noting, though, that there are plenty of years where snow falls in NYC or surrounding areas earlier than that, especially in late November.

@noejoy3 (Twitter): How far behind is NYC foliage this year approximately?

2021 has definitely been a slower year for fall foliage – not just in NYC, but in the Northeast as a whole. You can blame the unusually warm October and Autumn in general, which has prolonged the ability for leaves and trees to continue the photosynthesis process. In overly simplified terms, the slowing of the photosynthesis process during cooler, damp, cloudier fall days is what leads to the leaves changing color. Warmer Autumns can often lead to slower, delayed, and less vibrant foliage displays as a result.

@realkarapauley (Twitter): Is it too early to predict when the first snowfall of the season will be?

Cool question! It definitely is a bit early to predict at this range. We’re still at least a few weeks away from the threat of snow, but often times a threat for snowfall can appear in the suburbs as early as the first week or two of November. The weather pattern coming up looks colder and more active than normal during the early to middle part of November, so if we had to bet at this range, we’d say that we anticipate the first snow of the year will come earlier than usual this year.

@smotta6 (Twitter): Are there any weather patterns unique to NYC like some other locations are known for (e.g. Chicago Windy City, “Lake-effect” precipitation in NE Ohio/Buffalo)?

Really cool question! The locals will tell you that we’re starting to be known for a monthly once-in-a-century flood. Seriously though, NYC’s weather can vary quite a bit, but it doesn’t seem that we have a trademark weather event. Perhaps the most notable recurring event is a Seabreeze that pushes inland to the city during the warm season. Some days you may not notice it, but on most summer days you’ll feel a breeze and temperatures will cool off in the mid afternoon. You can thank the Atlantic Ocean and a southerly wind component for that!

@pelha (Twitter): Are we ever going to see winter this year?

We certainly are. And probably earlier and more frequently than most people would like.

That’s all for us this week. We’ll see you next week for a very exciting mailbag and some special news!