John Homenuk

NHC monitoring multiple areas for tropical development

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The stretch of near-dormant conditions in the tropical Atlantic has come to an end, as anticipated. NHC is now monitoring multiple areas for possible tropical development over next several days. The area of thunderstorm activity with the highest probability of development (pictured above in red) also has the most interesting prospects for tracking close to the United States mainland.

NHC suggests that this area of thunderstorms has a 80% chance of developing into a tropical system of some sort over the next 5 days. The general track of the system during that time would place it somewhere north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles, though the details of how the system organizes remain uncertain at this range.

John Homenuk

Beautiful weather this weekend, coastal storm next week?

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At long last, the oppressive heat and humidity has left the party. Temperatures and dew points will trend into a much more comfortable range from tomorrow into the weekend.

In fact, most model guidance suggests that both Friday and Saturday could be top-tier weather days in the NYC Metro Area, with temperatures in the lower to middle 80’s and dew points in the 50’s. That’s about as good as it gets for summertime around here.

The pleasant weather is very likely to continue into Sunday, with the weekend overall turning out to be one of the nicest in quite some time. By midday Sunday, we’ll start to see an increase in high and mid level clouds. That’ll be a harbinger of unsettled weather to come during the early and middle part of next week.

Guidance suggests that a trough will form over the Eastern United States early next week, drawing moisture back into the area and encouraging the development of a low pressure system off the coast. Exactly where this storm tracks remains a bit of an uncertainty right now.

Some guidance keeps the storm very close to the coast with multiple days of showers and rainy weather. Other models keep the storm more progressive, allowing to to escape out to sea faster and bringing just a brief period of showers before conditions clear out.

The current expectation is that we’ll have at least somewhat unsettled conditions from Monday into Wednesday. If the storm tracks close to the coast, periods of heavier rain will be possible (which honestly wouldn’t be a terrible thing given the localized drought conditions). If it moves out to sea faster, we’ll likely still see unsettled conditions on Monday – but a faster improvement on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As always, we’ll have updates and the latest information on what to expect as we get closer. Stay tuned to our socials and make sure to pop any questions you may have regarding the forecast right here in our comments section!