Prolonged stretch of warm and dry weather expected in NYC

Spring has been doing its thing so far this year, with the classic fluctuations in temperature and plenty of precipitation over the past few weeks in NYC. The weather pattern will finally begin to change as we move through the weekend, with mid level ridging and high pressure building over the area.

This spring has so far been characterized by an active flow and jet stream across the country. Several storm systems have affected the Central US, from the Plains into the Midwest – with multiple severe weather/tornado events. Moisture from these storms has inevitably made its way towards our area afterwards. While temperatures have averaged a few degrees above normal, it has been relatively unsettled with many days of clouds and rain.

The active jet stream is finally set to take a step back this weekend, with most model data suggesting that a large mid level ridge will build overhead by the early part of next week. Higher than normal heights in the mid levels of the atmosphere often signal warmer temperatures, and warm air advection is expected to continue into the midweek time frame.

The result will be a handful of days that currently look to feature both warmer than normal anddry conditions. The magic sauce. In fact, most guidance suggests very little risk for precipitation until the tail end of the upcoming week, and even then the signal for substantial rainfall is very limited.

ECMWF ensemble data suggests that temperatures will average 8-10° F above normal in the NYC Metro and surrounding areas for the 5 days ending next Saturday. This is impressive for such a long time scale. That same ensemble also suggests a mean of 0.0″ precipitation for the same time scale. It doesn’t get much better than that. 

For the upcoming weekend, temperatures will average closer ot normal with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Early next week, temperatures will begin to warm quite quickly. The current forecast high temperature for next Tuesday is already near 70° F. 

Despite the lack of snow, it has been a long, grey and dreary winter. 

Primetime spring weather is finally here.