Seasonal forecasting is quite the challenge, but one we always look forward to. It seems every year we learn something new about the atmosphere. It is critical to have a fundamental understanding of how the atmosphere works, and the implications that changes from its base state can have on the weather pattern. Instead of focusing […]
For quite some time now, we have been discussing the critical pieces that go into our Winter Forecast. The puzzle starts with current conditions – from the tropical Pacific to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and everywhere in between. The current ENSO state has a huge impact on the forecast for any season, so understanding how […]
There is something about this time of year that features more fanfare than the rest. Maybe it’s the approach of winter, or the first surge of cold air into the middle latitudes. Either way, it seems that the first week of November almost always features a bit more drama to the forecast than most weeks, […]
A few weeks ago, while stagnant warmth continued to sit stubbornly East of the Mississippi River, the hemispheric weather pattern underwent a significant change. A pattern in the Pacific Ocean that had (not coincidentally) also been stagnant, finally budged. A large-scale retrogression of the wave pattern resulted in a dramatically changed pattern both in the […]